Matchday 3 · Premier League 2015-16 · August 22, 2015
Crystal Palace 2–1 Aston Villa: who deserved to win?
Crystal Palace beat Aston Villa 2–1, but the replays call it even: Crystal Palace win 4 of 10, Aston Villa 3, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.0 expected goals to 0.9). An own goal helped Aston Villa.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Crystal Palace | 2 | 0.99 |
 Aston Villa | 1 | 0.90 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +46 Crystal Palace lucky · −46 Aston Villa
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Crystal Palace win 4, 3 end level, Aston Villa win 3.
- 1 CRY 2 AVL 1
- 2 CRY 1 AVL 0
- 3 CRY 2 AVL 0
- 4 CRY 3 AVL 1
- 5 CRY 0 AVL 0
- 6 CRY 0 AVL 0
- 7 CRY 0 AVL 0
- 8 CRY 0 AVL 2
- 9 CRY 0 AVL 1
- 10 CRY 0 AVL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Crystal Palace win 38%, 31% end level, Aston Villa win 31%. The line is what actually happened: Crystal Palace by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Crystal Palace by 3+ | 4.2% |
| Crystal Palace by 2 | 10.4% |
| Crystal Palace by 1 | 23.5% |
| Draw | 31.2% |
| Aston Villa by 1 | 19.3% |
| Aston Villa by 2 | 8.3% |
| Aston Villa by 3+ | 3.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Crystal Palace | 17 | 2 | 0.99 | +1.01 |
 Aston Villa | 12 | 0 | 0.90 | −0.90 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 13' | Gabriel Imuetinyan Agbonlahor didn’t score from a shot | 0.52 |
| 70' | Scott Dann scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 86' | Bakary Sako scored from a shot | 0.05 |
When it happened
Crystal Palace’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13' | Gabriel Imuetinyan Agbonlahor didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 52% chance | +13% CRY |
| 2 | 20' | Wilfried Zaha didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +3% AVL |
| 3 | 46' | Bakary Sako didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% AVL |
| 4 | 64' | Bakary Sako didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% AVL |
| 5 | 70' | Jason Puncheon didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% AVL |
| 6 | 70' | Scott Dann scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +37% CRY |
| 7 | 76' | Own goal by nan, for Aston VillaOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +39% AVL |
| 8 | 86' | Bakary Sako scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +45% CRY |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Crystal Palace 66% · draw 23% · Aston Villa 10%
- Final margin
- Crystal Palace by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Crystal Palace
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Crystal Palace by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Crystal Palace 38% · draw 31% · Aston Villa 31% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Crystal Palace win 54% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 3 matches, 2015-16 · Crystal Palace · Aston Villa
More from matchday 3, 2015-16
- Norwich 1–1 Stoke Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 17% draws
- Man United 0–0 Newcastle Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- West Ham 3–4 Bournemouth Aug 22, 2015 · replay 83% for Bournemouth
- Leicester 1–1 Tottenham Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 18% draws
- Sunderland 1–1 Swansea Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Everton 0–2 Man City Aug 23, 2015 · replay 71% for Man City
- Watford 0–0 Southampton Aug 23, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- West Brom 2–3 Chelsea Aug 23, 2015 · replay 73% for Chelsea
- Arsenal 0–0 Liverpool Aug 24, 2015 · drawn; replay 21% draws