Matchday 3 · Premier League 2015-16 · August 23, 2015
Everton 0–2 Man City: who deserved to win?
Man City beat Everton 2–0, and the replays lean Man City’s way: 6 wins in 10, 1 for Everton, 3 end level. Man City made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Everton | 0 | 0.59 |
 Manchester City | 2 | 1.17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 Man City lucky · −29 Everton
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Everton win 1, 3 end level, Man City win 6.
- 1 EVE 1 MCI 0
- 2 EVE 0 MCI 0
- 3 EVE 0 MCI 0
- 4 EVE 1 MCI 1
- 5 EVE 0 MCI 3
- 6 EVE 0 MCI 2
- 7 EVE 0 MCI 1
- 8 EVE 0 MCI 1
- 9 EVE 0 MCI 1
- 10 EVE 0 MCI 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Everton win 14%, 29% end level, Man City win 57%. The line is what actually happened: Man City by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Everton by 3+ | 0.7% |
| Everton by 2 | 2.5% |
| Everton by 1 | 11.1% |
| Draw | 28.9% |
| Man City by 1 | 30.2% |
| Man City by 2 | 16.9% |
| Man City by 3+ | 9.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Everton | 10 | 0 | 0.59 | −0.59 |
 Man City | 16 | 2 | 1.17 | +0.83 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 59' | Aleksandar Kolarov scored from a shot | 0.01 |
| 87' | Samir Nasri scored from a shot | 0.15 |
When it happened
Everton’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% EVE |
| 2 | 9' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% EVE |
| 3 | 46' | David Josué Jiménez Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% EVE |
| 4 | 48' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 8% chance | +3% MCI |
| 5 | 59' | The game turned hereAleksandar Kolarov scored from a shotFinishing · 1% chance | +36% MCI |
| 6 | 61' | Arouna Koné didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% MCI |
| 7 | 62' | Jesús Navas González didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +4% EVE |
| 8 | 78' | Gareth Barry didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% MCI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Everton 5% · draw 13% · Man City 82%
- Final margin
- Man City by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for Man City
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man City by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Everton 14% · draw 29% · Man City 57% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Man City win 71% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2015-16
- Norwich 1–1 Stoke Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 17% draws
- Man United 0–0 Newcastle Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- West Ham 3–4 Bournemouth Aug 22, 2015 · replay 83% for Bournemouth
- Crystal Palace 2–1 Aston Villa Aug 22, 2015 · replay 54% for Crystal Palace
- Leicester 1–1 Tottenham Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 18% draws
- Sunderland 1–1 Swansea Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Watford 0–0 Southampton Aug 23, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- West Brom 2–3 Chelsea Aug 23, 2015 · replay 73% for Chelsea
- Arsenal 0–0 Liverpool Aug 24, 2015 · drawn; replay 21% draws