Matchday 3 · Premier League 2015-16 · August 22, 2015
Sunderland 1–1 Swansea: who deserved to win?
Sunderland and Swansea drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Sunderland win 2 of 10, Swansea 6, and 2 end level. Swansea made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sunderland | 1 | 0.83 |
 Swansea City | 1 | 1.63 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +22 Sunderland about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sunderland win 2, 2 end level, Swansea win 6.
- 1 SUN 2 SWA 1
- 2 SUN 2 SWA 0
- 3 SUN 1 SWA 1
- 4 SUN 0 SWA 0
- 5 SUN 0 SWA 4
- 6 SUN 0 SWA 3
- 7 SUN 0 SWA 2
- 8 SUN 1 SWA 2
- 9 SUN 1 SWA 2
- 10 SUN 0 SWA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sunderland win 16%, 23% end level, Swansea win 60%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sunderland by 3+ | 1.5% |
| Sunderland by 2 | 4.5% |
| Sunderland by 1 | 10.3% |
| Draw | 23.3% |
| Swansea by 1 | 26.5% |
| Swansea by 2 | 18.1% |
| Swansea by 3+ | 15.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sunderland | 11 | 1 | 0.83 | +0.17 |
 Swansea | 21 | 1 | 1.63 | −0.63 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 47' | Bafétimbi Gomis scored from a shot | 0.17 |
| 61' | Jermain Defoe scored from a shot | 0.29 |
When it happened
Sunderland’s chance of winning
As low as 17% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33' | André Ayew Pelé didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% SUN |
| 2 | 47' | Bafétimbi Gomis scored from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +27% SWA |
| 3 | 61' | Jermain Defoe scored from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +26% SUN |
| 4 | 73' | Bafétimbi Gomis didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +5% SUN |
| 5 | 79' | Jefferson Antonio Montero Vite didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% SUN |
| 6 | 88' | Jeremain Lens didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 8% chance | +4% SWA |
| 7 | 88' | André Ayew Pelé didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% SUN |
| 8 | 94' | Sebastian Larsson didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 8% chance | +4% SWA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sunderland 18% · draw 26% · Swansea 56%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for Sunderland
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Swansea by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Sunderland 16% · draw 23% · Swansea 60% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 3 matches, 2015-16 · Sunderland · Swansea
More from matchday 3, 2015-16
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- Man United 0–0 Newcastle Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
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- Crystal Palace 2–1 Aston Villa Aug 22, 2015 · replay 54% for Crystal Palace
- Leicester 1–1 Tottenham Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 18% draws
- Everton 0–2 Man City Aug 23, 2015 · replay 71% for Man City
- Watford 0–0 Southampton Aug 23, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
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