Matchday 3 · Premier League 2015-16 · August 22, 2015
West Ham 3–4 Bournemouth: who deserved to win?
Bournemouth beat West Ham 4–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Bournemouth win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Bournemouth made the better chances: 2.7 expected goals to 1.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 West Ham United | 3 | 1.70 |
 AFC Bournemouth | 4 | 2.74 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +17 Bournemouth about even · −17 West Ham
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Ham win 1, 1 ends level, Bournemouth win 8.
- 1 WHU 1 BOU 0
- 2 WHU 0 BOU 0
- 3 WHU 3 BOU 9
- 4 WHU 0 BOU 4
- 5 WHU 0 BOU 4
- 6 WHU 1 BOU 4
- 7 WHU 0 BOU 2
- 8 WHU 2 BOU 4
- 9 WHU 5 BOU 6
- 10 WHU 2 BOU 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
West Ham win 11%, 12% end level, Bournemouth win 77%. The line is what actually happened: Bournemouth by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Ham by 3+ | 1.1% |
| West Ham by 2 | 3.3% |
| West Ham by 1 | 6.5% |
| Draw | 12.1% |
| Bournemouth by 1 | 17.1% |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 19.4% |
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 40.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 West Ham | 10 (1 pen) | 3 | 1.70 | +1.30 |
 Bournemouth | 16 (1 pen) | 4 | 2.74 | +1.26 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 10' | Callum Wilson scored from a shot | 0.26 |
| 27' | Callum Wilson scored from a shot | 0.58 |
| 31' | Joshua King didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
| 47' | Mark Noble scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 52' | Cheikhou Kouyaté scored from a shot | 0.23 |
| 65' | Marc Pugh scored from a shot | 0.33 |
| 78' | Callum Wilson scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 81' | Modibo Maïga scored from a shot | 0.42 |
When it happened
West Ham’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10' | Callum Wilson scored from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +19% BOU |
| 2 | 27' | Callum Wilson scored from a shotFinishing · 58% chance | +8% BOU |
| 3 | 31' | Joshua King didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +2% WHU |
| 4 | 47' | Mark Noble scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +4% WHU |
| 5 | 52' | Cheikhou Kouyaté scored from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +26% WHU |
| 6 | 61' | Marc Pugh didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +5% WHU |
| 7 | 65' | The game turned hereMarc Pugh scored from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +26% BOU |
| 8 | 81' | Modibo Maïga scored from a shotFinishing · 42% chance | +3% WHU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Ham 15% · draw 20% · Bournemouth 65%
- Final margin
- Bournemouth by 1
- Luck in goals
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bournemouth by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- West Ham 11% · draw 12% · Bournemouth 77% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Bournemouth win 83% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2015-16
- Norwich 1–1 Stoke Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 17% draws
- Man United 0–0 Newcastle Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Crystal Palace 2–1 Aston Villa Aug 22, 2015 · replay 54% for Crystal Palace
- Leicester 1–1 Tottenham Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 18% draws
- Sunderland 1–1 Swansea Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Everton 0–2 Man City Aug 23, 2015 · replay 71% for Man City
- Watford 0–0 Southampton Aug 23, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- West Brom 2–3 Chelsea Aug 23, 2015 · replay 73% for Chelsea
- Arsenal 0–0 Liverpool Aug 24, 2015 · drawn; replay 21% draws