luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 3 · Premier League 2015-16 · August 23, 2015

Watford 0–0 Southampton: who deserved to win?

Watford and Southampton drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Watford win 4 of 10, Southampton 3, and 3 end level. The chances were close to even (0.9 expected goals to 0.8).

Full time

GoalsxG
Watford 0 0.86
Southampton 0 0.82

August 23, 2015 · Vicarage Road · Referee: Andre Marriner

Luck index −1 Watford about even for the draw

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Watford win 4, 3 end level, Southampton win 3.

  1. 1 WAT 1 SOU 0
  2. 2 WAT 3 SOU 2
  3. 3 WAT 2 SOU 1
  4. 4 WAT 2 SOU 0
  5. 5 WAT 2 SOU 2
  6. 6 WAT 1 SOU 1
  7. 7 WAT 0 SOU 0
  8. 8 WAT 0 SOU 2
  9. 9 WAT 0 SOU 1
  10. 10 WAT 1 SOU 2

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Watford win 35%, 32% end level, Southampton win 33%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Watford by 3+3.6%
Watford by 29.0%
Watford by 122.9%
Draw31.8%
Southampton by 121.4%
Southampton by 28.7%
Southampton by 3+2.6%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Watford1200.86−0.86
Southampton1500.82−0.82

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
65'Etienne Capoue didn’t score from a shot0.44

When it happened

Watford’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Watford was ahead in it, below while Southampton was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 1' Steven Caulker didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance +2% WAT
2 26' Shane Long didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance +3% WAT
3 36' Steven Caulker didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance +4% WAT
4 65' Troy Deeney didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance +5% SOU
5 65' Etienne Capoue didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 44% chance +16% SOU
6 75' Graziano Pellè didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance +5% WAT
7 79' Jay Rodriguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance +3% WAT
8 80' Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance +3% SOU

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Watford 37% · draw 32% · Southampton 31%

Final margin
even
Luck in goals
none
Luck-adjusted margin
even
Replay with same day's form
Watford 35% · draw 32% · Southampton 33% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this match and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a chance goes in.

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).

All matchday 3 matches, 2015-16 · Watford · Southampton

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