Matchday 3 · Premier League 2015-16 · August 23, 2015
West Brom 2–3 Chelsea: who deserved to win?
Chelsea beat West Brom 3–2, and the replays lean Chelsea’s way: 7 wins in 10, 2 for West Brom, 1 end level. Chelsea made the better chances: 2.5 expected goals to 1.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 West Bromwich Albion | 2 | 1.77 |
 Chelsea | 3 | 2.47 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +27 Chelsea lucky · −27 West Brom
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Brom win 2, 1 ends level, Chelsea win 7.
- 1 WBA 4 CHE 3
- 2 WBA 4 CHE 2
- 3 WBA 3 CHE 3
- 4 WBA 0 CHE 5
- 5 WBA 1 CHE 5
- 6 WBA 2 CHE 5
- 7 WBA 1 CHE 3
- 8 WBA 0 CHE 2
- 9 WBA 1 CHE 2
- 10 WBA 0 CHE 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
West Brom win 19%, 15% end level, Chelsea win 66%. The line is what actually happened: Chelsea by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Brom by 3+ | 3.1% |
| West Brom by 2 | 5.7% |
| West Brom by 1 | 10.3% |
| Draw | 14.9% |
| Chelsea by 1 | 18.6% |
| Chelsea by 2 | 19.1% |
| Chelsea by 3+ | 28.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 West Brom | 16 (1 pen) | 2 | 1.77 | +0.23 |
 Chelsea | 15 | 3 | 2.48 | +0.52 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 13' | James Morrison didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 19' | Pedro Eliezer Rodríguez Ledesma scored from a shot | 0.26 |
| 29' | Diego da Silva Costa scored from a shot | 0.91 |
| 34' | James Morrison scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 41' | César Azpilicueta Tanco scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 58' | James Morrison scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 86' | Eden Hazard didn’t score from a shot | 0.30 |
When it happened
West Brom’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Diego da Silva Costa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +5% WBA |
| 2 | 13' | James Morrison didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +18% CHE |
| 3 | 19' | The game turned herePedro Eliezer Rodríguez Ledesma scored from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +20% CHE |
| 4 | 34' | James Morrison scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +16% WBA |
| 5 | 41' | César Azpilicueta Tanco scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +15% CHE |
| 6 | 58' | James Morrison scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +13% WBA |
| 7 | 71' | Callum McManaman didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% CHE |
| 8 | 92' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +6% CHE |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Brom 21% · draw 23% · Chelsea 56%
- Final margin
- Chelsea by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Chelsea
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Chelsea by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- West Brom 19% · draw 15% · Chelsea 66% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Chelsea win 73% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 3 matches, 2015-16 · West Brom · Chelsea
More from matchday 3, 2015-16
- Norwich 1–1 Stoke Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 17% draws
- Man United 0–0 Newcastle Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- West Ham 3–4 Bournemouth Aug 22, 2015 · replay 83% for Bournemouth
- Crystal Palace 2–1 Aston Villa Aug 22, 2015 · replay 54% for Crystal Palace
- Leicester 1–1 Tottenham Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 18% draws
- Sunderland 1–1 Swansea Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Everton 0–2 Man City Aug 23, 2015 · replay 71% for Man City
- Watford 0–0 Southampton Aug 23, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Arsenal 0–0 Liverpool Aug 24, 2015 · drawn; replay 21% draws