Matchday 4 · Premier League 2015-16 · August 29, 2015
Newcastle 0–1 Arsenal: who deserved to win?
Arsenal beat Newcastle 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Arsenal win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Arsenal made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 0.0. An own goal helped Arsenal.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Newcastle United | 0 | 0.04 |
 Arsenal | 1 | 1.89 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +8 Arsenal about even · −8 Newcastle
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Newcastle win 0, 1 ends level, Arsenal win 9.
- 1 NEW 0 ARS 0
- 2 NEW 0 ARS 5
- 3 NEW 0 ARS 4
- 4 NEW 0 ARS 3
- 5 NEW 0 ARS 3
- 6 NEW 0 ARS 2
- 7 NEW 0 ARS 2
- 8 NEW 0 ARS 1
- 9 NEW 0 ARS 1
- 10 NEW 0 ARS 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Newcastle win 1%, 14% end level, Arsenal win 85%. The line is what actually happened: Arsenal by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Newcastle by 3+ | 0.0% |
| Newcastle by 2 | 0.1% |
| Newcastle by 1 | 1.1% |
| Draw | 14.2% |
| Arsenal by 1 | 24.6% |
| Arsenal by 2 | 26.9% |
| Arsenal by 3+ | 33.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Newcastle | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | −0.04 |
 Arsenal | 22 | 0 | 1.89 | −1.89 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 31' | Theo Walcott didn’t score from a shot | 0.45 |
When it happened
Newcastle’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8' | Theo Walcott didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +5% NEW |
| 2 | 31' | Theo Walcott didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 45% chance | +13% NEW |
| 3 | 38' | Theo Walcott didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +6% NEW |
| 4 | 44' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% NEW |
| 5 | 51' | Santiago Cazorla González didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% NEW |
| 6 | 51' | Aaron Ramsey didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% NEW |
| 7 | 51' | Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% NEW |
| 8 | 51' | The game turned hereOwn goal by nan, for ArsenalOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +32% ARS |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Newcastle 1% · draw 13% · Arsenal 86%
- Final margin
- Arsenal by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Newcastle
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arsenal by 1.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Newcastle 1% · draw 14% · Arsenal 85% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Arsenal win 92% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 4, 2015-16
- Stoke 0–1 West Brom Aug 29, 2015 · replay 61% for West Brom
- Bournemouth 1–1 Leicester Aug 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 44% draws
- Liverpool 0–3 West Ham Aug 29, 2015 · replay 57% for West Ham
- Chelsea 1–2 Crystal Palace Aug 29, 2015 · replay 54% for Crystal Palace
- Aston Villa 2–2 Sunderland Aug 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 9% draws
- Man City 2–0 Watford Aug 29, 2015 · replay 78% for Man City
- Tottenham 0–0 Everton Aug 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Swansea 2–1 Man United Aug 30, 2015 · replay 49% for Swansea
- Southampton 3–0 Norwich Aug 30, 2015 · replay 90% for Southampton