Matchday 4 · Premier League 2015-16 · August 29, 2015
Chelsea 1–2 Crystal Palace: who deserved to win?
Crystal Palace beat Chelsea 2–1, but the replays call it even: Crystal Palace win 4 of 10, Chelsea 4, 2 end level. The chances were close to even (2.2 expected goals to 2.1).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Chelsea | 1 | 2.20 |
 Crystal Palace | 2 | 2.14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +46 Crystal Palace lucky · −46 Chelsea
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Chelsea win 4, 2 end level, Crystal Palace win 4.
- 1 CHE 2 CRY 1
- 2 CHE 3 CRY 2
- 3 CHE 2 CRY 0
- 4 CHE 4 CRY 1
- 5 CHE 3 CRY 3
- 6 CHE 2 CRY 2
- 7 CHE 3 CRY 6
- 8 CHE 1 CRY 3
- 9 CHE 1 CRY 2
- 10 CHE 0 CRY 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Chelsea win 37%, 19% end level, Crystal Palace win 44%. The line is what actually happened: Crystal Palace by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Chelsea by 3+ | 8.9% |
| Chelsea by 2 | 11.1% |
| Chelsea by 1 | 16.6% |
| Draw | 19.4% |
| Crystal Palace by 1 | 18.3% |
| Crystal Palace by 2 | 12.6% |
| Crystal Palace by 3+ | 13.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chelsea | 27 | 1 | 2.20 | −1.20 |
 Crystal Palace | 13 | 2 | 2.14 | −0.14 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 28' | Yohan Cabaye didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
| 52' | Connor Wickham didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
| 64' | Bakary Sako scored from a shot | 0.43 |
| 78' | Radamel Falcao García Zárate scored from a shot | 0.17 |
| 80' | Joel Ward scored from a shot | 0.41 |
| 88' | Radamel Falcao García Zárate didn’t score from a shot | 0.33 |
When it happened
Chelsea’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28' | Yohan Cabaye didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +9% CHE |
| 2 | 52' | Connor Wickham didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +11% CHE |
| 3 | 64' | Bakary Sako scored from a shotFinishing · 43% chance | +22% CRY |
| 4 | 78' | Radamel Falcao García Zárate scored from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +36% CHE |
| 5 | 80' | The game turned hereJoel Ward scored from a shotFinishing · 41% chance | +26% CRY |
| 6 | 88' | Branislav Ivanović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +13% CRY |
| 7 | 88' | Radamel Falcao García Zárate didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +16% CRY |
| 8 | 91' | Francesc Fàbregas i Soler didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +9% CRY |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Chelsea 40% · draw 21% · Crystal Palace 39%
- Final margin
- Crystal Palace by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Crystal Palace
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Crystal Palace by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Chelsea 37% · draw 19% · Crystal Palace 44% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Crystal Palace win 54% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 4, 2015-16
- Stoke 0–1 West Brom Aug 29, 2015 · replay 61% for West Brom
- Bournemouth 1–1 Leicester Aug 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 44% draws
- Liverpool 0–3 West Ham Aug 29, 2015 · replay 57% for West Ham
- Newcastle 0–1 Arsenal Aug 29, 2015 · replay 92% for Arsenal
- Aston Villa 2–2 Sunderland Aug 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 9% draws
- Man City 2–0 Watford Aug 29, 2015 · replay 78% for Man City
- Tottenham 0–0 Everton Aug 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Swansea 2–1 Man United Aug 30, 2015 · replay 49% for Swansea
- Southampton 3–0 Norwich Aug 30, 2015 · replay 90% for Southampton