Matchday 4 · Premier League 2015-16 · August 29, 2015
Liverpool 0–3 West Ham: who deserved to win?
West Ham beat Liverpool 3–0, and the replays lean West Ham’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Liverpool, 3 end level. Liverpool made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Liverpool | 0 | 1.06 |
 West Ham United | 3 | 0.73 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +43 West Ham lucky · −43 Liverpool
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Liverpool win 3, 3 end level, West Ham win 4.
- 1 LIV 2 WHU 1
- 2 LIV 1 WHU 0
- 3 LIV 2 WHU 0
- 4 LIV 2 WHU 2
- 5 LIV 0 WHU 0
- 6 LIV 1 WHU 1
- 7 LIV 0 WHU 2
- 8 LIV 0 WHU 2
- 9 LIV 0 WHU 1
- 10 LIV 1 WHU 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Liverpool win 27%, 33% end level, West Ham win 40%. The line is what actually happened: West Ham by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Liverpool by 3+ | 2.1% |
| Liverpool by 2 | 6.5% |
| Liverpool by 1 | 18.3% |
| Draw | 33.1% |
| West Ham by 1 | 25.0% |
| West Ham by 2 | 10.7% |
| West Ham by 3+ | 4.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Liverpool | 14 | 0 | 1.06 | −1.06 |
 West Ham | 12 | 3 | 0.73 | +2.27 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 2' | Manuel Lanzini scored from a shot | 0.20 |
| 28' | Mark Noble scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 91' | Diafra Sakho scored from a shot | 0.10 |
When it happened
Liverpool’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Manuel Lanzini scored from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +20% WHU |
| 2 | 15' | Manuel Lanzini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% LIV |
| 3 | 25' | Aaron Cresswell didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +1% LIV |
| 4 | 28' | Mark Noble scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +17% WHU |
| 5 | 38' | Philippe Coutinho Correia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% WHU |
| 6 | 58' | Christian Benteke Liolo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +1% WHU |
| 7 | 82' | James Philip Milner didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +1% WHU |
| 8 | 82' | Dejan Lovren didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +1% WHU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Liverpool 16% · draw 28% · West Ham 56%
- Final margin
- West Ham by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.5 for West Ham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- West Ham by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Liverpool 27% · draw 33% · West Ham 40% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). West Ham win 57% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 4, 2015-16
- Stoke 0–1 West Brom Aug 29, 2015 · replay 61% for West Brom
- Bournemouth 1–1 Leicester Aug 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 44% draws
- Chelsea 1–2 Crystal Palace Aug 29, 2015 · replay 54% for Crystal Palace
- Newcastle 0–1 Arsenal Aug 29, 2015 · replay 92% for Arsenal
- Aston Villa 2–2 Sunderland Aug 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 9% draws
- Man City 2–0 Watford Aug 29, 2015 · replay 78% for Man City
- Tottenham 0–0 Everton Aug 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Swansea 2–1 Man United Aug 30, 2015 · replay 49% for Swansea
- Southampton 3–0 Norwich Aug 30, 2015 · replay 90% for Southampton