Matchday 4 · Premier League 2015-16 · August 29, 2015
Man City 2–0 Watford: who deserved to win?
Man City beat Watford 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Man City win 7 of 10, 3 end level. Man City made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Manchester City | 2 | 1.24 |
 Watford | 0 | 0.40 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +22 Man City about even · −22 Watford
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Man City win 7, 3 end level, Watford win 0.
- 1 MCI 1 WAT 0
- 2 MCI 1 WAT 0
- 3 MCI 1 WAT 0
- 4 MCI 1 WAT 0
- 5 MCI 2 WAT 0
- 6 MCI 3 WAT 0
- 7 MCI 4 WAT 0
- 8 MCI 0 WAT 0
- 9 MCI 0 WAT 0
- 10 MCI 0 WAT 0
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Man City win 65%, 26% end level, Watford win 9%. The line is what actually happened: Man City by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Man City by 3+ | 14.7% |
| Man City by 2 | 19.8% |
| Man City by 1 | 30.6% |
| Draw | 25.7% |
| Watford by 1 | 7.5% |
| Watford by 2 | 1.3% |
| Watford by 3+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Man City | 18 | 2 | 1.24 | +0.76 |
 Watford | 7 | 0 | 0.40 | −0.40 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 46' | Raheem Sterling scored from a shot | 0.35 |
| 55' | Fernando Luiz Rosa scored from a shot | 0.07 |
When it happened
Man City’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% WAT |
| 2 | 13' | Craig Cathcart didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% MCI |
| 3 | 13' | Sebastian Prödl didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% MCI |
| 4 | 23' | Raheem Sterling didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% WAT |
| 5 | 26' | Raheem Sterling didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% WAT |
| 6 | 38' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% WAT |
| 7 | 46' | Raheem Sterling scored from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +19% MCI |
| 8 | 55' | Fernando Luiz Rosa scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +10% MCI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Man City 87% · draw 10% · Watford 3%
- Final margin
- Man City by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Man City
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man City by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Man City 65% · draw 26% · Watford 9% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Man City win 78% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 4 matches, 2015-16 · Man City · Watford
More from matchday 4, 2015-16
- Stoke 0–1 West Brom Aug 29, 2015 · replay 61% for West Brom
- Bournemouth 1–1 Leicester Aug 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 44% draws
- Liverpool 0–3 West Ham Aug 29, 2015 · replay 57% for West Ham
- Chelsea 1–2 Crystal Palace Aug 29, 2015 · replay 54% for Crystal Palace
- Newcastle 0–1 Arsenal Aug 29, 2015 · replay 92% for Arsenal
- Aston Villa 2–2 Sunderland Aug 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 9% draws
- Tottenham 0–0 Everton Aug 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Swansea 2–1 Man United Aug 30, 2015 · replay 49% for Swansea
- Southampton 3–0 Norwich Aug 30, 2015 · replay 90% for Southampton