Matchday 4 · Premier League 2015-16 · August 29, 2015
Bournemouth 1–1 Leicester: who deserved to win?
Bournemouth and Leicester drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Bournemouth win 2 of 10, Leicester 4, and 4 end level. Leicester made the better chances: 0.8 expected goals to 0.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 0.30 |
 Leicester City | 1 | 0.83 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +12 Bournemouth about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bournemouth win 2, 4 end level, Leicester win 4.
- 1 BOU 1 LEI 0
- 2 BOU 1 LEI 0
- 3 BOU 1 LEI 1
- 4 BOU 0 LEI 0
- 5 BOU 0 LEI 0
- 6 BOU 0 LEI 0
- 7 BOU 0 LEI 2
- 8 BOU 0 LEI 1
- 9 BOU 0 LEI 1
- 10 BOU 0 LEI 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Bournemouth win 16%, 44% end level, Leicester win 40%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 0.4% |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 2.0% |
| Bournemouth by 1 | 13.5% |
| Draw | 43.8% |
| Leicester by 1 | 27.5% |
| Leicester by 2 | 9.7% |
| Leicester by 3+ | 3.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bournemouth | 4 | 1 | 0.30 | +0.70 |
 Leicester | 3 (1 pen) | 1 | 0.83 | +0.17 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 23' | Callum Wilson scored from a shot | 0.21 |
| 85' | Jamie Vardy scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Bournemouth’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15' | Jamie Vardy didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% BOU |
| 2 | 20' | Max-Alain Gradel didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 1% chance | +0% LEI |
| 3 | 23' | Callum Wilson scored from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +19% BOU |
| 4 | 33' | Max-Alain Gradel didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 6% chance | +1% LEI |
| 5 | 82' | Jeffrey Schlupp didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 1% chance | +0% BOU |
| 6 | 85' | Jamie Vardy scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +10% LEI |
| 7 | 95' | Simon Francis didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +1% LEI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bournemouth 9% · draw 35% · Leicester 56%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Bournemouth
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Leicester by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Bournemouth 16% · draw 44% · Leicester 40% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 4 matches, 2015-16 · Bournemouth · Leicester
More from matchday 4, 2015-16
- Stoke 0–1 West Brom Aug 29, 2015 · replay 61% for West Brom
- Liverpool 0–3 West Ham Aug 29, 2015 · replay 57% for West Ham
- Chelsea 1–2 Crystal Palace Aug 29, 2015 · replay 54% for Crystal Palace
- Newcastle 0–1 Arsenal Aug 29, 2015 · replay 92% for Arsenal
- Aston Villa 2–2 Sunderland Aug 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 9% draws
- Man City 2–0 Watford Aug 29, 2015 · replay 78% for Man City
- Tottenham 0–0 Everton Aug 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Swansea 2–1 Man United Aug 30, 2015 · replay 49% for Swansea
- Southampton 3–0 Norwich Aug 30, 2015 · replay 90% for Southampton