Matchday 4 · Premier League 2015-16 · August 30, 2015
Swansea 2–1 Man United: who deserved to win?
Swansea beat Man United 2–1, but the replays call it even: Swansea win 3 of 10, Man United 4, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (0.9 expected goals to 0.9).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Swansea City | 2 | 0.93 |
 Manchester United | 1 | 0.90 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +51 Swansea lucky · −51 Man United
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Swansea win 3, 3 end level, Man United win 4.
- 1 SWA 1 MUN 0
- 2 SWA 1 MUN 0
- 3 SWA 2 MUN 0
- 4 SWA 0 MUN 0
- 5 SWA 0 MUN 0
- 6 SWA 1 MUN 1
- 7 SWA 0 MUN 2
- 8 SWA 0 MUN 2
- 9 SWA 0 MUN 1
- 10 SWA 0 MUN 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Swansea win 33%, 32% end level, Man United win 35%. The line is what actually happened: Swansea by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Swansea by 3+ | 2.8% |
| Swansea by 2 | 8.8% |
| Swansea by 1 | 21.6% |
| Draw | 31.8% |
| Man United by 1 | 22.6% |
| Man United by 2 | 9.7% |
| Man United by 3+ | 2.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Swansea | 9 | 2 | 0.93 | +1.07 |
 Man United | 11 | 1 | 0.90 | +0.10 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 24' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
| 47' | Juan Manuel Mata García scored from a shot | 0.11 |
| 60' | André Ayew Pelé scored from a shot | 0.19 |
| 65' | Bafétimbi Gomis scored from a shot | 0.10 |
When it happened
Swansea’s chance of winning
As low as 18% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20' | Juan Manuel Mata García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% SWA |
| 2 | 24' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +8% MUN |
| 3 | 26' | Bafétimbi Gomis didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% MUN |
| 4 | 29' | Wayne Mark Rooney didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% SWA |
| 5 | 47' | Juan Manuel Mata García scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +29% MUN |
| 6 | 60' | The game turned hereAndré Ayew Pelé scored from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +29% SWA |
| 7 | 65' | Bafétimbi Gomis scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +32% SWA |
| 8 | 73' | Memphis Depay didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% SWA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Swansea 37% · draw 31% · Man United 32%
- Final margin
- Swansea by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Swansea
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Swansea by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Swansea 33% · draw 32% · Man United 35% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Swansea win 49% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 4 matches, 2015-16 · Swansea · Man United
More from matchday 4, 2015-16
- Stoke 0–1 West Brom Aug 29, 2015 · replay 61% for West Brom
- Bournemouth 1–1 Leicester Aug 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 44% draws
- Liverpool 0–3 West Ham Aug 29, 2015 · replay 57% for West Ham
- Chelsea 1–2 Crystal Palace Aug 29, 2015 · replay 54% for Crystal Palace
- Newcastle 0–1 Arsenal Aug 29, 2015 · replay 92% for Arsenal
- Aston Villa 2–2 Sunderland Aug 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 9% draws
- Man City 2–0 Watford Aug 29, 2015 · replay 78% for Man City
- Tottenham 0–0 Everton Aug 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Southampton 3–0 Norwich Aug 30, 2015 · replay 90% for Southampton