Matchday 4 · Premier League 2015-16 · August 29, 2015
Aston Villa 2–2 Sunderland: who deserved to win?
Aston Villa and Sunderland drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Aston Villa win 9 of 10, Sunderland 0, and 1 end level. Aston Villa made the better chances: 3.3 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 2 | 3.30 |
 Sunderland | 2 | 0.66 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −41 Aston Villa unlucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Aston Villa win 9, 1 ends level, Sunderland win 0.
- 1 AVL 1 SUN 0
- 2 AVL 2 SUN 1
- 3 AVL 2 SUN 0
- 4 AVL 5 SUN 3
- 5 AVL 3 SUN 0
- 6 AVL 3 SUN 0
- 7 AVL 4 SUN 0
- 8 AVL 5 SUN 0
- 9 AVL 7 SUN 1
- 10 AVL 2 SUN 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Aston Villa win 86%, 9% end level, Sunderland win 5%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa by 3+ | 48.7% |
| Aston Villa by 2 | 21.2% |
| Aston Villa by 1 | 16.4% |
| Draw | 8.9% |
| Sunderland by 1 | 3.5% |
| Sunderland by 2 | 1.0% |
| Sunderland by 3+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 22 (1 pen) | 2 | 3.30 | −1.30 |
 Sunderland | 7 | 2 | 0.66 | +1.34 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 7' | Yann Gérard M''Vila scored from a free kick | 0.05 |
| 11' | Scott Sinclair scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 40' | Scott Sinclair scored from a shot | 0.73 |
| 51' | Jeremain Lens scored from a shot | 0.36 |
| 58' | Micah Richards didn’t score from a shot | 0.70 |
When it happened
Aston Villa’s chance of winning
As low as 32% and as high as 86%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Yann Gérard M''Vila scored from a free kickFinishing · 5% chance | +24% SUN |
| 2 | 11' | Scott Sinclair scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +6% AVL |
| 3 | 40' | Scott Sinclair scored from a shotFinishing · 73% chance | +8% AVL |
| 4 | 51' | Jeremain Lens scored from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +20% SUN |
| 5 | 58' | Micah Richards didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 70% chance | +23% SUN |
| 6 | 80' | Ashley Westwood didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +5% SUN |
| 7 | 84' | Rudy Gestede didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% SUN |
| 8 | 86' | Rudy Gestede didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% SUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Aston Villa 93% · draw 5% · Sunderland 2%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 2.0 for Sunderland
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Aston Villa by 2.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Aston Villa 86% · draw 9% · Sunderland 5% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 4, 2015-16
- Stoke 0–1 West Brom Aug 29, 2015 · replay 61% for West Brom
- Bournemouth 1–1 Leicester Aug 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 44% draws
- Liverpool 0–3 West Ham Aug 29, 2015 · replay 57% for West Ham
- Chelsea 1–2 Crystal Palace Aug 29, 2015 · replay 54% for Crystal Palace
- Newcastle 0–1 Arsenal Aug 29, 2015 · replay 92% for Arsenal
- Man City 2–0 Watford Aug 29, 2015 · replay 78% for Man City
- Tottenham 0–0 Everton Aug 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Swansea 2–1 Man United Aug 30, 2015 · replay 49% for Swansea
- Southampton 3–0 Norwich Aug 30, 2015 · replay 90% for Southampton