Matchday 4 · Premier League 2015-16 · August 29, 2015
Stoke 0–1 West Brom: who deserved to win?
West Brom beat Stoke 1–0, and the replays lean West Brom’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Stoke, 3 end level. West Brom made the better chances: 0.9 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Stoke City | 0 | 0.66 |
 West Bromwich Albion | 1 | 0.95 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +39 West Brom lucky · −39 Stoke
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Stoke win 2, 3 end level, West Brom win 5.
- 1 STK 1 WBA 0
- 2 STK 2 WBA 0
- 3 STK 3 WBA 3
- 4 STK 0 WBA 0
- 5 STK 1 WBA 1
- 6 STK 0 WBA 3
- 7 STK 0 WBA 2
- 8 STK 0 WBA 1
- 9 STK 0 WBA 1
- 10 STK 0 WBA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Stoke win 23%, 32% end level, West Brom win 45%. The line is what actually happened: West Brom by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Stoke by 3+ | 1.3% |
| Stoke by 2 | 5.3% |
| Stoke by 1 | 16.2% |
| Draw | 32.4% |
| West Brom by 1 | 25.4% |
| West Brom by 2 | 13.1% |
| West Brom by 3+ | 6.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stoke | 13 | 0 | 0.66 | −0.66 |
 West Brom | 16 | 1 | 0.95 | +0.05 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 47' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez scored from a shot | 0.23 |
When it happened
Stoke’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10' | Mame Biram Diouf didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% WBA |
| 2 | 23' | James Morrison didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% STK |
| 3 | 27' | Mame Biram Diouf didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +6% WBA |
| 4 | 37' | Craig Gardner didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% STK |
| 5 | 46' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% STK |
| 6 | 47' | The game turned hereJosé Salomón Rondón Giménez scored from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +25% WBA |
| 7 | 81' | Geoff Cameron didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% WBA |
| 8 | 93' | Marko Arnautović didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 6% chance | +3% WBA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Stoke 24% · draw 33% · West Brom 43%
- Final margin
- West Brom by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for West Brom
- Luck-adjusted margin
- West Brom by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Stoke 23% · draw 32% · West Brom 45% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). West Brom win 61% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 4 matches, 2015-16 · Stoke · West Brom
More from matchday 4, 2015-16
- Bournemouth 1–1 Leicester Aug 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 44% draws
- Liverpool 0–3 West Ham Aug 29, 2015 · replay 57% for West Ham
- Chelsea 1–2 Crystal Palace Aug 29, 2015 · replay 54% for Crystal Palace
- Newcastle 0–1 Arsenal Aug 29, 2015 · replay 92% for Arsenal
- Aston Villa 2–2 Sunderland Aug 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 9% draws
- Man City 2–0 Watford Aug 29, 2015 · replay 78% for Man City
- Tottenham 0–0 Everton Aug 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Swansea 2–1 Man United Aug 30, 2015 · replay 49% for Swansea
- Southampton 3–0 Norwich Aug 30, 2015 · replay 90% for Southampton