Matchday 4 · Premier League 2015-16 · August 30, 2015
Southampton 3–0 Norwich: who deserved to win?
Southampton beat Norwich 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Southampton win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Southampton made the better chances: 2.6 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Southampton | 3 | 2.59 |
 Norwich City | 0 | 0.78 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +10 Southampton about even · −10 Norwich
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Southampton win 9, 1 ends level, Norwich win 0.
- 1 SOU 2 NOR 1
- 2 SOU 2 NOR 1
- 3 SOU 3 NOR 1
- 4 SOU 4 NOR 2
- 5 SOU 4 NOR 1
- 6 SOU 3 NOR 0
- 7 SOU 4 NOR 0
- 8 SOU 5 NOR 0
- 9 SOU 7 NOR 1
- 10 SOU 1 NOR 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Southampton win 86%, 9% end level, Norwich win 5%. The line is what actually happened: Southampton by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Southampton by 3+ | 50.2% |
| Southampton by 2 | 19.6% |
| Southampton by 1 | 15.9% |
| Draw | 9.4% |
| Norwich by 1 | 4.0% |
| Norwich by 2 | 0.8% |
| Norwich by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Southampton | 23 | 3 | 2.59 | +0.41 |
 Norwich | 6 | 0 | 0.78 | −0.78 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 19' | Cameron Jerome didn’t score from a shot | 0.51 |
| 45' | Graziano Pellè scored from a shot | 0.23 |
| 63' | Dušan Tadić scored from a shot | 0.25 |
| 66' | Dušan Tadić scored from a shot | 0.82 |
When it happened
Southampton’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | José Miguel da Rocha Fonte didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% NOR |
| 2 | 8' | Graziano Pellè didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +2% NOR |
| 3 | 19' | Cameron Jerome didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 51% chance | +14% SOU |
| 4 | 25' | Graziano Pellè didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% NOR |
| 5 | 45' | Graziano Pellè scored from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +23% SOU |
| 6 | 59' | Sébastien Aymar Bassong Nguena didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% SOU |
| 7 | 61' | Graziano Pellè didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +1% NOR |
| 8 | 63' | Dušan Tadić scored from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +7% SOU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Southampton 95% · draw 5% · Norwich 1%
- Final margin
- Southampton by 3
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Southampton
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Southampton by 2.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Southampton 86% · draw 9% · Norwich 5% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Southampton win 90% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 4 matches, 2015-16 · Southampton · Norwich
More from matchday 4, 2015-16
- Stoke 0–1 West Brom Aug 29, 2015 · replay 61% for West Brom
- Bournemouth 1–1 Leicester Aug 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 44% draws
- Liverpool 0–3 West Ham Aug 29, 2015 · replay 57% for West Ham
- Chelsea 1–2 Crystal Palace Aug 29, 2015 · replay 54% for Crystal Palace
- Newcastle 0–1 Arsenal Aug 29, 2015 · replay 92% for Arsenal
- Aston Villa 2–2 Sunderland Aug 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 9% draws
- Man City 2–0 Watford Aug 29, 2015 · replay 78% for Man City
- Tottenham 0–0 Everton Aug 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Swansea 2–1 Man United Aug 30, 2015 · replay 49% for Swansea