Matchday 8 · Premier League 2015-16 · October 3, 2015
Norwich 1–2 Leicester: who deserved to win?
Leicester beat Norwich 2–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Leicester win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Leicester made the better chances: 3.5 expected goals to 1.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Norwich City | 1 | 1.29 |
 Leicester City | 2 | 3.52 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +8 Leicester about even · −8 Norwich
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Norwich win 0, 1 ends level, Leicester win 9.
- 1 NOR 2 LEI 2
- 2 NOR 1 LEI 8
- 3 NOR 0 LEI 5
- 4 NOR 0 LEI 4
- 5 NOR 0 LEI 4
- 6 NOR 1 LEI 4
- 7 NOR 1 LEI 3
- 8 NOR 0 LEI 2
- 9 NOR 2 LEI 4
- 10 NOR 1 LEI 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Norwich win 5%, 8% end level, Leicester win 88%. The line is what actually happened: Leicester by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Norwich by 3+ | 0.3% |
| Norwich by 2 | 0.9% |
| Norwich by 1 | 3.5% |
| Draw | 7.5% |
| Leicester by 1 | 12.7% |
| Leicester by 2 | 17.1% |
| Leicester by 3+ | 58.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Norwich | 17 | 1 | 1.29 | −0.29 |
 Leicester | 16 (1 pen) | 2 | 3.52 | −1.52 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 27' | Jamie Vardy scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 29' | Jeffrey Schlupp didn’t score from a shot | 0.84 |
| 46' | Jeffrey Schlupp scored from a shot | 0.22 |
| 67' | Dieumerci Mbokani Bezua scored from a shot | 0.36 |
| 94' | Jamie Vardy didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
When it happened
Norwich’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | Shinji Okazaki didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +5% NOR |
| 2 | 24' | Danny Drinkwater didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +5% NOR |
| 3 | 27' | Jamie Vardy scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +6% LEI |
| 4 | 29' | Jeffrey Schlupp didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 84% chance | +15% NOR |
| 5 | 40' | Shinji Okazaki didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +4% NOR |
| 6 | 46' | Jeffrey Schlupp scored from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +13% LEI |
| 7 | 67' | Dieumerci Mbokani Bezua scored from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +8% NOR |
| 8 | 91' | Sébastien Aymar Bassong Nguena didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% LEI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Norwich 5% · draw 10% · Leicester 85%
- Final margin
- Leicester by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Norwich
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Leicester by 1.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Norwich 5% · draw 8% · Leicester 88% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Leicester win 92% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 8 matches, 2015-16 · Norwich · Leicester
More from matchday 8, 2015-16
- Bournemouth 1–1 Watford Oct 3, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Chelsea 1–3 Southampton Oct 3, 2015 · replay 81% for Southampton
- Sunderland 2–2 West Ham Oct 3, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Man City 6–1 Newcastle Oct 3, 2015 · replay 89% for Man City
- Crystal Palace 2–0 West Brom Oct 3, 2015 · replay 89% for Crystal Palace
- Aston Villa 0–1 Stoke Oct 3, 2015 · replay 73% for Stoke
- Swansea 2–2 Tottenham Oct 4, 2015 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Everton 1–1 Liverpool Oct 4, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Arsenal 3–0 Man United Oct 4, 2015 · replay 78% for Arsenal