Matchday 8 · Premier League 2015-16 · October 3, 2015
Sunderland 2–2 West Ham: who deserved to win?
Sunderland and West Ham drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Sunderland win 3 of 10, West Ham 5, and 2 end level. West Ham made the better chances: 2.0 expected goals to 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sunderland | 2 | 1.09 |
 West Ham United | 2 | 2.03 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 Sunderland about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sunderland win 3, 2 end level, West Ham win 5.
- 1 SUN 3 WHU 2
- 2 SUN 4 WHU 2
- 3 SUN 3 WHU 0
- 4 SUN 3 WHU 3
- 5 SUN 2 WHU 2
- 6 SUN 0 WHU 3
- 7 SUN 1 WHU 4
- 8 SUN 1 WHU 3
- 9 SUN 2 WHU 3
- 10 SUN 1 WHU 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sunderland win 33%, 23% end level, West Ham win 44%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sunderland by 3+ | 6.8% |
| Sunderland by 2 | 9.0% |
| Sunderland by 1 | 17.4% |
| Draw | 22.5% |
| West Ham by 1 | 19.6% |
| West Ham by 2 | 13.6% |
| West Ham by 3+ | 11.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sunderland | 12 | 2 | 1.09 | +0.91 |
 West Ham | 19 | 2 | 2.03 | −0.03 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 9' | Steven Fletcher scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 21' | Jeremain Lens scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 37' | Fabio Borini didn’t score from a shot | 0.46 |
| 45' | Carl Jenkinson scored from a shot | 0.31 |
| 59' | Dimitri Payet scored from a shot | 0.46 |
| 62' | Nikica Jelavić didn’t score from a shot | 0.53 |
When it happened
Sunderland’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Steven Fletcher scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +21% SUN |
| 2 | 21' | Jeremain Lens scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +11% SUN |
| 3 | 45' | Carl Jenkinson scored from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +8% WHU |
| 4 | 59' | Dimitri Payet scored from a shotFinishing · 46% chance | +18% WHU |
| 5 | 62' | Nikica Jelavić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 53% chance | +20% SUN |
| 6 | 80' | Nikica Jelavić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +5% SUN |
| 7 | 86' | Nikica Jelavić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% SUN |
| 8 | 92' | Nikica Jelavić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +5% SUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sunderland 17% · draw 22% · West Ham 61%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Sunderland
- Luck-adjusted margin
- West Ham by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Sunderland 33% · draw 23% · West Ham 44% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 8, 2015-16
- Bournemouth 1–1 Watford Oct 3, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Chelsea 1–3 Southampton Oct 3, 2015 · replay 81% for Southampton
- Man City 6–1 Newcastle Oct 3, 2015 · replay 89% for Man City
- Crystal Palace 2–0 West Brom Oct 3, 2015 · replay 89% for Crystal Palace
- Norwich 1–2 Leicester Oct 3, 2015 · replay 92% for Leicester
- Aston Villa 0–1 Stoke Oct 3, 2015 · replay 73% for Stoke
- Swansea 2–2 Tottenham Oct 4, 2015 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Everton 1–1 Liverpool Oct 4, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Arsenal 3–0 Man United Oct 4, 2015 · replay 78% for Arsenal