Matchday 8 · Premier League 2015-16 · October 3, 2015
Crystal Palace 2–0 West Brom: who deserved to win?
Crystal Palace beat West Brom 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Crystal Palace win 8 of 10, 2 end level. Crystal Palace made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 0.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Crystal Palace | 2 | 1.87 |
 West Bromwich Albion | 0 | 0.20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 Crystal Palace about even · −11 West Brom
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Crystal Palace win 8, 2 end level, West Brom win 0.
- 1 CRY 2 WBA 1
- 2 CRY 2 WBA 1
- 3 CRY 1 WBA 0
- 4 CRY 2 WBA 0
- 5 CRY 2 WBA 0
- 6 CRY 3 WBA 0
- 7 CRY 3 WBA 0
- 8 CRY 5 WBA 0
- 9 CRY 0 WBA 0
- 10 CRY 0 WBA 0
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Crystal Palace win 81%, 15% end level, West Brom win 3%. The line is what actually happened: Crystal Palace by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Crystal Palace by 3+ | 31.0% |
| Crystal Palace by 2 | 22.9% |
| Crystal Palace by 1 | 27.2% |
| Draw | 15.5% |
| West Brom by 1 | 3.0% |
| West Brom by 2 | 0.4% |
| West Brom by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Crystal Palace | 20 (1 pen) | 2 | 1.87 | +0.13 |
 West Brom | 6 | 0 | 0.20 | −0.20 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 67' | Yannick Bolasie Yala scored from a shot | 0.33 |
| 88' | Yohan Cabaye scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Crystal Palace’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | Wilfried Zaha didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +2% WBA |
| 2 | 25' | Chris Brunt didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% CRY |
| 3 | 27' | Wilfried Zaha didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% WBA |
| 4 | 36' | Wilfried Zaha didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% WBA |
| 5 | 40' | Wilfried Zaha didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% WBA |
| 6 | 54' | Dwight Gayle didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% WBA |
| 7 | 55' | Yohan Cabaye didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% WBA |
| 8 | 67' | Yannick Bolasie Yala scored from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +24% CRY |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Crystal Palace 96% · draw 3% · West Brom 1%
- Final margin
- Crystal Palace by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Crystal Palace
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Crystal Palace by 1.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Crystal Palace 81% · draw 15% · West Brom 3% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Crystal Palace win 89% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 8 matches, 2015-16 · Crystal Palace · West Brom
More from matchday 8, 2015-16
- Bournemouth 1–1 Watford Oct 3, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Chelsea 1–3 Southampton Oct 3, 2015 · replay 81% for Southampton
- Sunderland 2–2 West Ham Oct 3, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Man City 6–1 Newcastle Oct 3, 2015 · replay 89% for Man City
- Norwich 1–2 Leicester Oct 3, 2015 · replay 92% for Leicester
- Aston Villa 0–1 Stoke Oct 3, 2015 · replay 73% for Stoke
- Swansea 2–2 Tottenham Oct 4, 2015 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Everton 1–1 Liverpool Oct 4, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Arsenal 3–0 Man United Oct 4, 2015 · replay 78% for Arsenal