Matchday 8 · Premier League 2015-16 · October 4, 2015
Everton 1–1 Liverpool: who deserved to win?
Everton and Liverpool drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Everton win 2 of 10, Liverpool 5, and 3 end level. Liverpool made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.7.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +12 Everton about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Everton win 2, 3 end level, Liverpool win 5.
- 1 EVE 2 LIV 1
- 2 EVE 2 LIV 0
- 3 EVE 1 LIV 1
- 4 EVE 1 LIV 1
- 5 EVE 1 LIV 1
- 6 EVE 0 LIV 3
- 7 EVE 0 LIV 2
- 8 EVE 1 LIV 2
- 9 EVE 0 LIV 1
- 10 EVE 1 LIV 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Everton win 22%, 31% end level, Liverpool win 47%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Everton by 3+ | 1.2% |
| Everton by 2 | 5.0% |
| Everton by 1 | 15.8% |
| Draw | 31.4% |
| Liverpool by 1 | 25.8% |
| Liverpool by 2 | 13.5% |
| Liverpool by 3+ | 7.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Everton | 14 | 1 | 0.69 | +0.31 |
 Liverpool | 12 | 1 | 1.17 | −0.17 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 40' | Daniel William John Ings scored from a shot | 0.36 |
| 45' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shot | 0.12 |
When it happened
Everton’s chance of winning
As low as 23% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Daniel Andre Sturridge didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% EVE |
| 2 | 14' | Daniel Andre Sturridge didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% EVE |
| 3 | 25' | James Philip Milner didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% EVE |
| 4 | 27' | Steven Naismith didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% LIV |
| 5 | 40' | Daniel William John Ings scored from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +20% LIV |
| 6 | 45' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +28% EVE |
| 7 | 69' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +5% LIV |
| 8 | 80' | Philippe Coutinho Correia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% EVE |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Everton 22% · draw 30% · Liverpool 48%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Everton
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Liverpool by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Everton 22% · draw 31% · Liverpool 47% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 8, 2015-16
- Bournemouth 1–1 Watford Oct 3, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Chelsea 1–3 Southampton Oct 3, 2015 · replay 81% for Southampton
- Sunderland 2–2 West Ham Oct 3, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Man City 6–1 Newcastle Oct 3, 2015 · replay 89% for Man City
- Crystal Palace 2–0 West Brom Oct 3, 2015 · replay 89% for Crystal Palace
- Norwich 1–2 Leicester Oct 3, 2015 · replay 92% for Leicester
- Aston Villa 0–1 Stoke Oct 3, 2015 · replay 73% for Stoke
- Swansea 2–2 Tottenham Oct 4, 2015 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Arsenal 3–0 Man United Oct 4, 2015 · replay 78% for Arsenal