Matchday 8 · Premier League 2015-16 · October 3, 2015
Bournemouth 1–1 Watford: who deserved to win?
Bournemouth and Watford drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Bournemouth win 4 of 10, Watford 4, and 2 end level. The chances were close to even (1.4 expected goals to 1.2).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 1.38 |
 Watford | 1 | 1.17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −7 Bournemouth about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bournemouth win 4, 2 end level, Watford win 4.
- 1 BOU 1 WAT 0
- 2 BOU 1 WAT 0
- 3 BOU 3 WAT 1
- 4 BOU 4 WAT 1
- 5 BOU 0 WAT 0
- 6 BOU 2 WAT 2
- 7 BOU 1 WAT 3
- 8 BOU 1 WAT 3
- 9 BOU 0 WAT 1
- 10 BOU 2 WAT 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Bournemouth win 45%, 25% end level, Watford win 31%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 8.1% |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 13.7% |
| Bournemouth by 1 | 22.8% |
| Draw | 24.9% |
| Watford by 1 | 19.4% |
| Watford by 2 | 7.5% |
| Watford by 3+ | 3.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bournemouth | 11 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.38 | −0.38 |
 Watford | 11 | 1 | 1.17 | −0.17 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 27' | Glenn Murray scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 44' | Odion Jude Ighalo scored from a shot | 0.49 |
| 67' | Ikechi Anya didn’t score from a shot | 0.33 |
| 84' | Glenn Murray didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Bournemouth’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Glenn Murray didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% WAT |
| 2 | 27' | Glenn Murray scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +22% BOU |
| 3 | 44' | Odion Jude Ighalo scored from a shotFinishing · 49% chance | +15% WAT |
| 4 | 51' | Ben Watson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% BOU |
| 5 | 67' | Ikechi Anya didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +13% BOU |
| 6 | 79' | Glenn Murray didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% WAT |
| 7 | 84' | Glenn Murray didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +36% WAT |
| 8 | 89' | Eunan O''Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +3% WAT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bournemouth 40% · draw 32% · Watford 28%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Watford
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bournemouth by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Bournemouth 45% · draw 25% · Watford 31% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 8 matches, 2015-16 · Bournemouth · Watford
More from matchday 8, 2015-16
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