Matchday 8 · Premier League 2015-16 · October 4, 2015
Swansea 2–2 Tottenham: who deserved to win?
Swansea and Tottenham drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Swansea win 4 of 10, Tottenham 3, and 3 end level. The chances were close to even (0.9 expected goals to 1.2). An own goal helped Swansea.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Swansea City | 2 | 0.92 |
 Tottenham Hotspur | 2 | 1.16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Swansea about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Swansea win 4, 3 end level, Tottenham win 3.
- 1 SWA 1 TOT 0
- 2 SWA 1 TOT 0
- 3 SWA 2 TOT 0
- 4 SWA 2 TOT 0
- 5 SWA 2 TOT 2
- 6 SWA 0 TOT 0
- 7 SWA 1 TOT 1
- 8 SWA 1 TOT 3
- 9 SWA 0 TOT 1
- 10 SWA 0 TOT 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Swansea win 36%, 28% end level, Tottenham win 36%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Swansea by 3+ | 4.2% |
| Swansea by 2 | 10.5% |
| Swansea by 1 | 21.0% |
| Draw | 28.4% |
| Tottenham by 1 | 21.9% |
| Tottenham by 2 | 10.1% |
| Tottenham by 3+ | 3.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Swansea | 11 | 1 | 0.92 | +0.08 |
 Tottenham | 21 | 2 | 1.16 | +0.84 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 14' | André Ayew Pelé scored from a shot | 0.15 |
| 26' | Christian Dannemann Eriksen scored from a free kick | 0.05 |
| 64' | Christian Dannemann Eriksen scored from a free kick | 0.01 |
When it happened
Swansea’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14' | André Ayew Pelé scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +20% SWA |
| 2 | 26' | Christian Dannemann Eriksen scored from a free kickFinishing · 5% chance | +24% TOT |
| 3 | 30' | Own goal by nan, for SwanseaOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +25% SWA |
| 4 | 45' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +5% SWA |
| 5 | 64' | Christian Dannemann Eriksen scored from a free kickFinishing · 1% chance | +35% TOT |
| 6 | 80' | Andros Townsend didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +5% SWA |
| 7 | 88' | Andros Townsend didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +4% SWA |
| 8 | 91' | Federico Fernández didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% TOT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Swansea 29% · draw 28% · Tottenham 43%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Swansea
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tottenham by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Swansea 36% · draw 28% · Tottenham 36% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 8 matches, 2015-16 · Swansea · Tottenham
More from matchday 8, 2015-16
- Bournemouth 1–1 Watford Oct 3, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Chelsea 1–3 Southampton Oct 3, 2015 · replay 81% for Southampton
- Sunderland 2–2 West Ham Oct 3, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Man City 6–1 Newcastle Oct 3, 2015 · replay 89% for Man City
- Crystal Palace 2–0 West Brom Oct 3, 2015 · replay 89% for Crystal Palace
- Norwich 1–2 Leicester Oct 3, 2015 · replay 92% for Leicester
- Aston Villa 0–1 Stoke Oct 3, 2015 · replay 73% for Stoke
- Everton 1–1 Liverpool Oct 4, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Arsenal 3–0 Man United Oct 4, 2015 · replay 78% for Arsenal