Matchday 8 · Premier League 2015-16 · October 4, 2015
Arsenal 3–0 Man United: who deserved to win?
Arsenal beat Man United 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Arsenal win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Arsenal made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Arsenal | 3 | 1.54 |
 Manchester United | 0 | 1.15 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +23 Arsenal about even · −23 Man United
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Arsenal win 7, 2 end level, Man United win 1.
- 1 ARS 2 MUN 1
- 2 ARS 2 MUN 1
- 3 ARS 1 MUN 0
- 4 ARS 3 MUN 1
- 5 ARS 3 MUN 1
- 6 ARS 4 MUN 1
- 7 ARS 5 MUN 1
- 8 ARS 0 MUN 0
- 9 ARS 1 MUN 1
- 10 ARS 0 MUN 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Arsenal win 67%, 20% end level, Man United win 12%. The line is what actually happened: Arsenal by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Arsenal by 3+ | 23.5% |
| Arsenal by 2 | 19.3% |
| Arsenal by 1 | 24.6% |
| Draw | 20.2% |
| Man United by 1 | 8.6% |
| Man United by 2 | 3.1% |
| Man United by 3+ | 0.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arsenal | 12 | 3 | 1.54 | +1.46 |
 Man United | 8 | 0 | 1.16 | −1.16 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 5' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez scored from a shot | 0.36 |
| 6' | Mesut Özil scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 19' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 33' | Aaron Ramsey didn’t score from a shot | 0.30 |
| 44' | Anthony Martial didn’t score from a shot | 0.36 |
| 67' | Bastian Schweinsteiger didn’t score from a shot | 0.54 |
When it happened
Arsenal’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +0% MUN |
| 2 | 5' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez scored from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +14% ARS |
| 3 | 6' | Mesut Özil scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +11% ARS |
| 4 | 19' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% ARS |
| 5 | 33' | Aaron Ramsey didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +0% MUN |
| 6 | 44' | Anthony Martial didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +1% ARS |
| 7 | 48' | Ashley Young didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +0% ARS |
| 8 | 67' | Bastian Schweinsteiger didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 54% chance | +1% ARS |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Arsenal 73% · draw 18% · Man United 9%
- Final margin
- Arsenal by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.0 for Arsenal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arsenal by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Arsenal 67% · draw 20% · Man United 12% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Arsenal win 78% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 8, 2015-16
- Bournemouth 1–1 Watford Oct 3, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Chelsea 1–3 Southampton Oct 3, 2015 · replay 81% for Southampton
- Sunderland 2–2 West Ham Oct 3, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Man City 6–1 Newcastle Oct 3, 2015 · replay 89% for Man City
- Crystal Palace 2–0 West Brom Oct 3, 2015 · replay 89% for Crystal Palace
- Norwich 1–2 Leicester Oct 3, 2015 · replay 92% for Leicester
- Aston Villa 0–1 Stoke Oct 3, 2015 · replay 73% for Stoke
- Swansea 2–2 Tottenham Oct 4, 2015 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Everton 1–1 Liverpool Oct 4, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws