Matchday 8 · Premier League 2015-16 · October 3, 2015
Aston Villa 0–1 Stoke: who deserved to win?
Stoke beat Aston Villa 1–0, and the replays lean Stoke’s way: 6 wins in 10, 1 for Aston Villa, 3 end level. Stoke made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 0 | 0.62 |
 Stoke City | 1 | 1.41 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +27 Stoke lucky · −27 Aston Villa
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Aston Villa win 1, 3 end level, Stoke win 6.
- 1 AVL 1 STK 0
- 2 AVL 0 STK 0
- 3 AVL 0 STK 0
- 4 AVL 2 STK 2
- 5 AVL 0 STK 3
- 6 AVL 0 STK 3
- 7 AVL 1 STK 3
- 8 AVL 1 STK 2
- 9 AVL 0 STK 1
- 10 AVL 0 STK 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Aston Villa win 14%, 26% end level, Stoke win 60%. The line is what actually happened: Stoke by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa by 3+ | 0.7% |
| Aston Villa by 2 | 2.7% |
| Aston Villa by 1 | 10.2% |
| Draw | 26.5% |
| Stoke by 1 | 27.2% |
| Stoke by 2 | 18.3% |
| Stoke by 3+ | 14.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 13 | 0 | 0.62 | −0.62 |
 Stoke | 12 | 1 | 1.41 | −0.41 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 54' | Marko Arnautović scored from a shot | 0.42 |
When it happened
Aston Villa’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Mame Biram Diouf didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +5% AVL |
| 2 | 22' | Mame Biram Diouf didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +8% AVL |
| 3 | 35' | Bojan Krkíc Pérez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% AVL |
| 4 | 54' | The game turned hereMarko Arnautović scored from a shotFinishing · 42% chance | +20% STK |
| 5 | 55' | Micah Richards didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +5% STK |
| 6 | 76' | Jordan Ayew didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% STK |
| 7 | 76' | Jordan Veretout didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% STK |
| 8 | 92' | Jordan Ayew didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 6% chance | +3% STK |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Aston Villa 16% · draw 24% · Stoke 60%
- Final margin
- Stoke by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Stoke
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Stoke by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Aston Villa 14% · draw 26% · Stoke 60% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Stoke win 73% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 8 matches, 2015-16 · Aston Villa · Stoke
More from matchday 8, 2015-16
- Bournemouth 1–1 Watford Oct 3, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Chelsea 1–3 Southampton Oct 3, 2015 · replay 81% for Southampton
- Sunderland 2–2 West Ham Oct 3, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Man City 6–1 Newcastle Oct 3, 2015 · replay 89% for Man City
- Crystal Palace 2–0 West Brom Oct 3, 2015 · replay 89% for Crystal Palace
- Norwich 1–2 Leicester Oct 3, 2015 · replay 92% for Leicester
- Swansea 2–2 Tottenham Oct 4, 2015 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Everton 1–1 Liverpool Oct 4, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Arsenal 3–0 Man United Oct 4, 2015 · replay 78% for Arsenal