Matchday 8 · Premier League 2015-16 · October 3, 2015
Man City 6–1 Newcastle: who deserved to win?
Man City beat Newcastle 6–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Man City win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Man City made the better chances: 3.9 expected goals to 1.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Manchester City | 6 | 3.90 |
 Newcastle United | 1 | 1.26 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 Man City about even · −11 Newcastle
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Man City win 8, 1 ends level, Newcastle win 1.
- 1 MCI 3 NEW 2
- 2 MCI 4 NEW 2
- 3 MCI 3 NEW 1
- 4 MCI 3 NEW 0
- 5 MCI 6 NEW 2
- 6 MCI 4 NEW 0
- 7 MCI 7 NEW 2
- 8 MCI 7 NEW 0
- 9 MCI 1 NEW 1
- 10 MCI 3 NEW 4
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Man City win 85%, 8% end level, Newcastle win 7%. The line is what actually happened: Man City by 5.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Man City by 3+ | 55.6% |
| Man City by 2 | 16.4% |
| Man City by 1 | 12.8% |
| Draw | 8.3% |
| Newcastle by 1 | 4.3% |
| Newcastle by 2 | 1.7% |
| Newcastle by 3+ | 0.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Man City | 23 | 6 | 3.90 | +2.10 |
 Newcastle | 6 | 1 | 1.26 | −0.26 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 7' | Fernando Francisco Reges didn’t score from a shot | 0.85 |
| 7' | Fernando Francisco Reges didn’t score from a shot | 0.30 |
| 16' | Aleksandar Mitrović scored from a shot | 0.33 |
| 26' | Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shot | 0.59 |
| 41' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a shot | 0.50 |
| 48' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 49' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a shot | 0.51 |
| 52' | Kevin De Bruyne scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 59' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 61' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a shot | 0.62 |
When it happened
Man City’s chance of winning
As low as 25% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Fernando Francisco Reges didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 85% chance | +19% NEW |
| 2 | 7' | Fernando Francisco Reges didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +7% NEW |
| 3 | 13' | Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% MCI |
| 4 | 16' | Aleksandar Mitrović scored from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +18% NEW |
| 5 | 26' | Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 59% chance | +11% MCI |
| 6 | 41' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a shotFinishing · 50% chance | +16% MCI |
| 7 | 48' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +27% MCI |
| 8 | 49' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a shotFinishing · 51% chance | +6% MCI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Man City 99% · draw 1% · Newcastle 0%
- Final margin
- Man City by 5
- Luck in goals
- 1.8 for Man City
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man City by 3.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Man City 85% · draw 8% · Newcastle 7% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Man City win 89% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 8, 2015-16
- Bournemouth 1–1 Watford Oct 3, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Chelsea 1–3 Southampton Oct 3, 2015 · replay 81% for Southampton
- Sunderland 2–2 West Ham Oct 3, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Crystal Palace 2–0 West Brom Oct 3, 2015 · replay 89% for Crystal Palace
- Norwich 1–2 Leicester Oct 3, 2015 · replay 92% for Leicester
- Aston Villa 0–1 Stoke Oct 3, 2015 · replay 73% for Stoke
- Swansea 2–2 Tottenham Oct 4, 2015 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Everton 1–1 Liverpool Oct 4, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Arsenal 3–0 Man United Oct 4, 2015 · replay 78% for Arsenal