Matchday 12 · Premier League 2015-16 · November 7, 2015
Norwich 1–0 Swansea: who deserved to win?
Norwich beat Swansea 1–0, and the replays lean Norwich’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Swansea, 3 end level. Norwich made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Norwich City | 1 | 1.10 |
 Swansea City | 0 | 0.49 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +32 Norwich lucky · −32 Swansea
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Norwich win 5, 3 end level, Swansea win 2.
- 1 NOR 1 SWA 0
- 2 NOR 1 SWA 0
- 3 NOR 1 SWA 0
- 4 NOR 2 SWA 0
- 5 NOR 3 SWA 0
- 6 NOR 0 SWA 0
- 7 NOR 1 SWA 1
- 8 NOR 0 SWA 0
- 9 NOR 0 SWA 1
- 10 NOR 0 SWA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Norwich win 53%, 32% end level, Swansea win 16%. The line is what actually happened: Norwich by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Norwich by 3+ | 7.8% |
| Norwich by 2 | 14.8% |
| Norwich by 1 | 30.0% |
| Draw | 31.6% |
| Swansea by 1 | 12.2% |
| Swansea by 2 | 3.1% |
| Swansea by 3+ | 0.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Norwich | 9 | 1 | 1.10 | −0.10 |
 Swansea | 8 | 0 | 0.49 | −0.49 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 69' | Jonathan Howson scored from a shot | 0.51 |
When it happened
Norwich’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8' | Cameron Jerome didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +6% SWA |
| 2 | 30' | Bafétimbi Gomis didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% NOR |
| 3 | 65' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% NOR |
| 4 | 67' | Sung-Yeung Ki didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% NOR |
| 5 | 69' | Robert Brady didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% SWA |
| 6 | 69' | Jonathan Howson scored from a shotFinishing · 51% chance | +18% NOR |
| 7 | 80' | Kyle Naughton didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% NOR |
| 8 | 81' | Bafétimbi Gomis didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% NOR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Norwich 54% · draw 31% · Swansea 16%
- Final margin
- Norwich by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Norwich
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Norwich by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Norwich 53% · draw 32% · Swansea 16% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Norwich win 68% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 12 matches, 2015-16 · Norwich · Swansea
More from matchday 12, 2015-16
- Stoke 1–0 Chelsea Nov 7, 2015 · replay 51% for Stoke
- West Ham 1–1 Everton Nov 7, 2015 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Bournemouth 0–1 Newcastle Nov 7, 2015 · replay 30% for Newcastle
- Man United 2–0 West Brom Nov 7, 2015 · replay 81% for Man United
- Leicester 2–1 Watford Nov 7, 2015 · replay 77% for Leicester
- Sunderland 0–1 Southampton Nov 7, 2015 · replay 80% for Southampton
- Liverpool 1–2 Crystal Palace Nov 8, 2015 · replay 24% for Crystal Palace
- Arsenal 1–1 Tottenham Nov 8, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Aston Villa 0–0 Man City Nov 8, 2015 · drawn; replay 17% draws