Matchday 12 · Premier League 2015-16 · November 8, 2015
Arsenal 1–1 Tottenham: who deserved to win?
Arsenal and Tottenham drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Arsenal win 4 of 10, Tottenham 3, and 3 end level. Arsenal made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Arsenal | 1 | 1.57 |
 Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 1.09 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −4 Arsenal about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Arsenal win 4, 3 end level, Tottenham win 3.
- 1 ARS 2 TOT 1
- 2 ARS 1 TOT 0
- 3 ARS 2 TOT 0
- 4 ARS 3 TOT 0
- 5 ARS 3 TOT 3
- 6 ARS 1 TOT 1
- 7 ARS 1 TOT 1
- 8 ARS 0 TOT 2
- 9 ARS 0 TOT 1
- 10 ARS 0 TOT 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Arsenal win 41%, 25% end level, Tottenham win 33%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Arsenal by 3+ | 6.6% |
| Arsenal by 2 | 12.9% |
| Arsenal by 1 | 21.8% |
| Draw | 25.3% |
| Tottenham by 1 | 18.5% |
| Tottenham by 2 | 10.2% |
| Tottenham by 3+ | 4.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arsenal | 10 | 1 | 1.57 | −0.57 |
 Tottenham | 16 | 1 | 1.09 | −0.09 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 31' | Harry Kane scored from a shot | 0.26 |
| 38' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez didn’t score from a shot | 0.40 |
| 76' | Kieran Gibbs scored from a shot | 0.31 |
When it happened
Arsenal’s chance of winning
As low as 10% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24' | Eric Dier didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% ARS |
| 2 | 31' | Harry Kane scored from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +21% TOT |
| 3 | 38' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 40% chance | +12% TOT |
| 4 | 53' | Olivier Giroud didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +10% TOT |
| 5 | 59' | Olivier Giroud didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +8% TOT |
| 6 | 76' | Kieran Gibbs scored from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +29% ARS |
| 7 | 78' | Per Mertesacker didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% TOT |
| 8 | 78' | Olivier Giroud didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% TOT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Arsenal 49% · draw 27% · Tottenham 24%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Tottenham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arsenal by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Arsenal 41% · draw 25% · Tottenham 33% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 12, 2015-16
- Stoke 1–0 Chelsea Nov 7, 2015 · replay 51% for Stoke
- West Ham 1–1 Everton Nov 7, 2015 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Bournemouth 0–1 Newcastle Nov 7, 2015 · replay 30% for Newcastle
- Man United 2–0 West Brom Nov 7, 2015 · replay 81% for Man United
- Norwich 1–0 Swansea Nov 7, 2015 · replay 68% for Norwich
- Leicester 2–1 Watford Nov 7, 2015 · replay 77% for Leicester
- Sunderland 0–1 Southampton Nov 7, 2015 · replay 80% for Southampton
- Liverpool 1–2 Crystal Palace Nov 8, 2015 · replay 24% for Crystal Palace
- Aston Villa 0–0 Man City Nov 8, 2015 · drawn; replay 17% draws