Matchday 12 · Premier League 2015-16 · November 8, 2015
Liverpool 1–2 Crystal Palace: who deserved to win?
Crystal Palace beat Liverpool 2–1, a result the replays rarely give: Liverpool win 7 of 10, Crystal Palace only 1, 2 end level. Liverpool made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Liverpool | 1 | 1.80 |
 Crystal Palace | 2 | 0.58 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +76 Crystal Palace very lucky · −76 Liverpool
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Liverpool win 7, 2 end level, Crystal Palace win 1.
- 1 LIV 2 CRY 1
- 2 LIV 1 CRY 0
- 3 LIV 2 CRY 1
- 4 LIV 2 CRY 0
- 5 LIV 2 CRY 0
- 6 LIV 3 CRY 0
- 7 LIV 5 CRY 1
- 8 LIV 0 CRY 0
- 9 LIV 0 CRY 0
- 10 LIV 0 CRY 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Liverpool win 65%, 22% end level, Crystal Palace win 13%. The line is what actually happened: Crystal Palace by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Liverpool by 3+ | 17.8% |
| Liverpool by 2 | 19.8% |
| Liverpool by 1 | 27.5% |
| Draw | 21.9% |
| Crystal Palace by 1 | 9.6% |
| Crystal Palace by 2 | 2.8% |
| Crystal Palace by 3+ | 0.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Liverpool | 22 | 1 | 1.80 | −0.80 |
 Crystal Palace | 9 | 2 | 0.58 | +1.42 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 20' | Yannick Bolasie Yala scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 41' | Philippe Coutinho Correia scored from a shot | 0.21 |
| 61' | Christian Benteke Liolo didn’t score from a shot | 0.42 |
| 81' | Scott Dann scored from a shot | 0.10 |
When it happened
Liverpool’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20' | Yannick Bolasie Yala scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +25% CRY |
| 2 | 25' | Philippe Coutinho Correia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% CRY |
| 3 | 31' | Christian Benteke Liolo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% CRY |
| 4 | 41' | Philippe Coutinho Correia scored from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +25% LIV |
| 5 | 61' | Bakary Sako didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +8% LIV |
| 6 | 61' | Christian Benteke Liolo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 42% chance | +14% CRY |
| 7 | 74' | Adam David Lallana didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +5% CRY |
| 8 | 81' | The game turned hereScott Dann scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +41% CRY |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Liverpool 68% · draw 21% · Crystal Palace 12%
- Final margin
- Crystal Palace by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.7 for Crystal Palace
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Liverpool by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Liverpool 65% · draw 22% · Crystal Palace 13% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Crystal Palace win 24% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 12 matches, 2015-16 · Liverpool · Crystal Palace
More from matchday 12, 2015-16
- Stoke 1–0 Chelsea Nov 7, 2015 · replay 51% for Stoke
- West Ham 1–1 Everton Nov 7, 2015 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Bournemouth 0–1 Newcastle Nov 7, 2015 · replay 30% for Newcastle
- Man United 2–0 West Brom Nov 7, 2015 · replay 81% for Man United
- Norwich 1–0 Swansea Nov 7, 2015 · replay 68% for Norwich
- Leicester 2–1 Watford Nov 7, 2015 · replay 77% for Leicester
- Sunderland 0–1 Southampton Nov 7, 2015 · replay 80% for Southampton
- Arsenal 1–1 Tottenham Nov 8, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Aston Villa 0–0 Man City Nov 8, 2015 · drawn; replay 17% draws