Matchday 12 · Premier League 2015-16 · November 7, 2015
Bournemouth 0–1 Newcastle: who deserved to win?
Newcastle beat Bournemouth 1–0, but the replays lean toward Bournemouth: 5 wins in 10 to Newcastle’s 1, 4 end level. Bournemouth made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 AFC Bournemouth | 0 | 1.08 |
 Newcastle United | 1 | 0.24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +70 Newcastle very lucky · −70 Bournemouth
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bournemouth win 5, 4 end level, Newcastle win 1.
- 1 BOU 1 NEW 0
- 2 BOU 1 NEW 0
- 3 BOU 2 NEW 1
- 4 BOU 2 NEW 0
- 5 BOU 3 NEW 0
- 6 BOU 0 NEW 0
- 7 BOU 1 NEW 1
- 8 BOU 0 NEW 0
- 9 BOU 1 NEW 1
- 10 BOU 1 NEW 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Bournemouth win 52%, 35% end level, Newcastle win 12%. The line is what actually happened: Newcastle by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 5.9% |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 14.5% |
| Bournemouth by 1 | 31.9% |
| Draw | 35.4% |
| Newcastle by 1 | 10.7% |
| Newcastle by 2 | 1.4% |
| Newcastle by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bournemouth | 22 | 0 | 1.08 | −1.08 |
 Newcastle | 2 | 1 | 0.24 | +0.76 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 26' | Ayoze Pérez Gutiérrez scored from a shot | 0.14 |
When it happened
Bournemouth’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Matt Ritchie didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +2% NEW |
| 2 | 20' | Joshua King didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% NEW |
| 3 | 26' | The game turned hereAyoze Pérez Gutiérrez scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +24% NEW |
| 4 | 34' | Joshua King didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% NEW |
| 5 | 38' | Dan Gosling didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +4% NEW |
| 6 | 47' | Dan Gosling didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% NEW |
| 7 | 48' | Harry Arter didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% NEW |
| 8 | 50' | Junior Stanislas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% NEW |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bournemouth 59% · draw 31% · Newcastle 11%
- Final margin
- Newcastle by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.4 for Newcastle
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bournemouth by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Bournemouth 52% · draw 35% · Newcastle 12% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Newcastle win 30% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 12, 2015-16
- Stoke 1–0 Chelsea Nov 7, 2015 · replay 51% for Stoke
- West Ham 1–1 Everton Nov 7, 2015 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Man United 2–0 West Brom Nov 7, 2015 · replay 81% for Man United
- Norwich 1–0 Swansea Nov 7, 2015 · replay 68% for Norwich
- Leicester 2–1 Watford Nov 7, 2015 · replay 77% for Leicester
- Sunderland 0–1 Southampton Nov 7, 2015 · replay 80% for Southampton
- Liverpool 1–2 Crystal Palace Nov 8, 2015 · replay 24% for Crystal Palace
- Arsenal 1–1 Tottenham Nov 8, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Aston Villa 0–0 Man City Nov 8, 2015 · drawn; replay 17% draws