Matchday 12 · Premier League 2015-16 · November 7, 2015
Sunderland 0–1 Southampton: who deserved to win?
Southampton beat Sunderland 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Southampton win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Southampton made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sunderland | 0 | 0.56 |
 Southampton | 1 | 1.80 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 Southampton about even · −20 Sunderland
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sunderland win 1, 2 end level, Southampton win 7.
- 1 SUN 2 SOU 1
- 2 SUN 1 SOU 1
- 3 SUN 0 SOU 0
- 4 SUN 0 SOU 4
- 5 SUN 1 SOU 4
- 6 SUN 0 SOU 2
- 7 SUN 0 SOU 2
- 8 SUN 2 SOU 3
- 9 SUN 1 SOU 2
- 10 SUN 0 SOU 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sunderland win 10%, 21% end level, Southampton win 69%. The line is what actually happened: Southampton by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sunderland by 3+ | 0.3% |
| Sunderland by 2 | 1.8% |
| Sunderland by 1 | 7.5% |
| Draw | 21.3% |
| Southampton by 1 | 26.9% |
| Southampton by 2 | 21.7% |
| Southampton by 3+ | 20.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sunderland | 11 | 0 | 0.56 | −0.56 |
 Southampton | 14 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.80 | −0.80 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 68' | Dušan Tadić scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Sunderland’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15' | Dušan Tadić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +6% SUN |
| 2 | 54' | Sadio Mané didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +6% SUN |
| 3 | 54' | Graziano Pellè didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% SUN |
| 4 | 55' | José Miguel da Rocha Fonte didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +5% SUN |
| 5 | 59' | Duncan Watmore didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +7% SOU |
| 6 | 68' | Dušan Tadić scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +9% SOU |
| 7 | 72' | Adam Johnson didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 5% chance | +2% SOU |
| 8 | 84' | Jack Rodwell didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% SOU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sunderland 8% · draw 19% · Southampton 73%
- Final margin
- Southampton by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Sunderland
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Southampton by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Sunderland 10% · draw 21% · Southampton 69% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Southampton win 80% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 12 matches, 2015-16 · Sunderland · Southampton
More from matchday 12, 2015-16
- Stoke 1–0 Chelsea Nov 7, 2015 · replay 51% for Stoke
- West Ham 1–1 Everton Nov 7, 2015 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Bournemouth 0–1 Newcastle Nov 7, 2015 · replay 30% for Newcastle
- Man United 2–0 West Brom Nov 7, 2015 · replay 81% for Man United
- Norwich 1–0 Swansea Nov 7, 2015 · replay 68% for Norwich
- Leicester 2–1 Watford Nov 7, 2015 · replay 77% for Leicester
- Liverpool 1–2 Crystal Palace Nov 8, 2015 · replay 24% for Crystal Palace
- Arsenal 1–1 Tottenham Nov 8, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Aston Villa 0–0 Man City Nov 8, 2015 · drawn; replay 17% draws