Matchday 12 · Premier League 2015-16 · November 8, 2015
Aston Villa 0–0 Man City: who deserved to win?
Aston Villa and Man City drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Aston Villa win 0 of 10, Man City 8, and 2 end level. Man City made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 0.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 0 | 0.17 |
 Manchester City | 0 | 1.85 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +37 Aston Villa lucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Aston Villa win 0, 2 end level, Man City win 8.
- 1 AVL 1 MCI 1
- 2 AVL 0 MCI 0
- 3 AVL 1 MCI 5
- 4 AVL 0 MCI 3
- 5 AVL 0 MCI 3
- 6 AVL 0 MCI 2
- 7 AVL 0 MCI 2
- 8 AVL 0 MCI 1
- 9 AVL 0 MCI 1
- 10 AVL 0 MCI 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Aston Villa win 4%, 17% end level, Man City win 79%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa by 3+ | 0.0% |
| Aston Villa by 2 | 0.4% |
| Aston Villa by 1 | 3.8% |
| Draw | 17.3% |
| Man City by 1 | 27.3% |
| Man City by 2 | 26.2% |
| Man City by 3+ | 25.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 3 | 0 | 0.17 | −0.17 |
 Man City | 13 | 0 | 1.85 | −1.85 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 52' | Raheem Sterling didn’t score from a shot | 0.43 |
| 65' | Kevin De Bruyne didn’t score from a shot | 0.61 |
When it happened
Aston Villa’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16' | Fernando Francisco Reges didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% AVL |
| 2 | 52' | Raheem Sterling didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 43% chance | +15% AVL |
| 3 | 58' | Raheem Sterling didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +5% AVL |
| 4 | 65' | Kevin De Bruyne didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 61% chance | +23% AVL |
| 5 | 87' | Rudy Gestede didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% MCI |
| 6 | 91' | Fernando Francisco Reges didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +13% AVL |
| 7 | 91' | Nicolás Hernán Otamendi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% AVL |
| 8 | 93' | Aleksandar Kolarov didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% AVL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Aston Villa 2% · draw 13% · Man City 85%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 1.3 for Aston Villa
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man City by 1.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Aston Villa 4% · draw 17% · Man City 79% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 12, 2015-16
- Stoke 1–0 Chelsea Nov 7, 2015 · replay 51% for Stoke
- West Ham 1–1 Everton Nov 7, 2015 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Bournemouth 0–1 Newcastle Nov 7, 2015 · replay 30% for Newcastle
- Man United 2–0 West Brom Nov 7, 2015 · replay 81% for Man United
- Norwich 1–0 Swansea Nov 7, 2015 · replay 68% for Norwich
- Leicester 2–1 Watford Nov 7, 2015 · replay 77% for Leicester
- Sunderland 0–1 Southampton Nov 7, 2015 · replay 80% for Southampton
- Liverpool 1–2 Crystal Palace Nov 8, 2015 · replay 24% for Crystal Palace
- Arsenal 1–1 Tottenham Nov 8, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws