Matchday 12 · Premier League 2015-16 · November 7, 2015
Man United 2–0 West Brom: who deserved to win?
Man United beat West Brom 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Man United win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Man United made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Manchester United | 2 | 1.46 |
 West Bromwich Albion | 0 | 0.41 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +19 Man United about even · −19 West Brom
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Man United win 7, 2 end level, West Brom win 1.
- 1 MUN 1 WBA 0
- 2 MUN 2 WBA 1
- 3 MUN 1 WBA 0
- 4 MUN 2 WBA 0
- 5 MUN 2 WBA 0
- 6 MUN 3 WBA 0
- 7 MUN 4 WBA 0
- 8 MUN 0 WBA 0
- 9 MUN 0 WBA 0
- 10 MUN 0 WBA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Man United win 70%, 22% end level, West Brom win 9%. The line is what actually happened: Man United by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Man United by 3+ | 18.2% |
| Man United by 2 | 22.8% |
| Man United by 1 | 28.7% |
| Draw | 21.8% |
| West Brom by 1 | 7.1% |
| West Brom by 2 | 1.3% |
| West Brom by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Man United | 13 (1 pen) | 2 | 1.46 | +0.54 |
 West Brom | 4 | 0 | 0.41 | −0.41 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 51' | Jesse Lingard scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 90' | Juan Manuel Mata García scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Man United’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15' | Juan Manuel Mata García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% WBA |
| 2 | 19' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% MUN |
| 3 | 28' | Bastian Schweinsteiger didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% WBA |
| 4 | 40' | Jesse Lingard didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +7% WBA |
| 5 | 43' | Anthony Martial didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% WBA |
| 6 | 47' | Chris Brunt didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 4% chance | +1% MUN |
| 7 | 51' | Jesse Lingard scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +30% MUN |
| 8 | 73' | Saido Berahino didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +11% MUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Man United 91% · draw 7% · West Brom 2%
- Final margin
- Man United by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Man United
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man United by 1.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Man United 70% · draw 22% · West Brom 9% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Man United win 81% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 12 matches, 2015-16 · Man United · West Brom
More from matchday 12, 2015-16
- Stoke 1–0 Chelsea Nov 7, 2015 · replay 51% for Stoke
- West Ham 1–1 Everton Nov 7, 2015 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Bournemouth 0–1 Newcastle Nov 7, 2015 · replay 30% for Newcastle
- Norwich 1–0 Swansea Nov 7, 2015 · replay 68% for Norwich
- Leicester 2–1 Watford Nov 7, 2015 · replay 77% for Leicester
- Sunderland 0–1 Southampton Nov 7, 2015 · replay 80% for Southampton
- Liverpool 1–2 Crystal Palace Nov 8, 2015 · replay 24% for Crystal Palace
- Arsenal 1–1 Tottenham Nov 8, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Aston Villa 0–0 Man City Nov 8, 2015 · drawn; replay 17% draws