luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 12 · Premier League 2015-16 · November 7, 2015

Stoke 1–0 Chelsea: who deserved to win?

Stoke beat Chelsea 1–0, but the replays call it even: Stoke win 3 of 10, Chelsea 3, 4 end level. The chances were close to even (0.8 expected goals to 0.8).

Full time

GoalsxG
Stoke City 1 0.75
Chelsea 0 0.85

November 7, 2015 · bet365 Stadium · Referee: Anthony Taylor

Luck index +49 Stoke lucky · −49 Chelsea

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Stoke win 3, 4 end level, Chelsea win 3.

  1. 1 STK 1 CHE 0
  2. 2 STK 1 CHE 0
  3. 3 STK 3 CHE 1
  4. 4 STK 0 CHE 0
  5. 5 STK 0 CHE 0
  6. 6 STK 1 CHE 1
  7. 7 STK 0 CHE 0
  8. 8 STK 0 CHE 2
  9. 9 STK 0 CHE 1
  10. 10 STK 0 CHE 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Stoke win 33%, 35% end level, Chelsea win 32%. The line is what actually happened: Stoke by 1.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Stoke by 3+2.8%
Stoke by 27.6%
Stoke by 122.5%
Draw35.1%
Chelsea by 121.5%
Chelsea by 28.3%
Chelsea by 3+2.0%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Stoke810.75+0.25
Chelsea1800.85−0.85

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
52'Marko Arnautović scored from a shot0.22

When it happened

Stoke’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Stoke was ahead in it, below while Chelsea was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 0' Xherdan Shaqiri didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance +2% CHE
2 16' Glen Johnson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance +2% CHE
3 27' Jonathan Walters didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance +2% CHE
4 39' Diego da Silva Costa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance +3% STK
5 52' Marko Arnautović scored from a shotFinishing · 22% chance +24% STK
6 80' Eden Hazard didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance +5% STK
7 84' Loïc Rémy didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance +7% STK
8 90' Oscar dos Santos Emboaba Júnior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance +2% STK

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Stoke 32% · draw 33% · Chelsea 35%

Final margin
Stoke by 1
Luck in goals
0.8 for Stoke
Luck-adjusted margin
Stoke by 0.2
Replay with same day's form
Stoke 33% · draw 35% · Chelsea 32% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this match and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a chance goes in.

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Stoke win 51% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All matchday 12 matches, 2015-16 · Stoke · Chelsea

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