Matchday 12 · Premier League 2015-16 · November 7, 2015
West Ham 1–1 Everton: who deserved to win?
West Ham and Everton drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, West Ham win 2 of 10, Everton 5, and 3 end level. Everton made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 West Ham United | 1 | 0.84 |
 Everton | 1 | 1.66 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +14 West Ham about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Ham win 2, 3 end level, Everton win 5.
- 1 WHU 1 EVE 0
- 2 WHU 2 EVE 0
- 3 WHU 0 EVE 0
- 4 WHU 1 EVE 1
- 5 WHU 1 EVE 1
- 6 WHU 0 EVE 3
- 7 WHU 0 EVE 2
- 8 WHU 1 EVE 2
- 9 WHU 0 EVE 1
- 10 WHU 0 EVE 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
West Ham win 23%, 27% end level, Everton win 50%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Ham by 3+ | 1.9% |
| West Ham by 2 | 6.0% |
| West Ham by 1 | 14.9% |
| Draw | 26.8% |
| Everton by 1 | 24.1% |
| Everton by 2 | 16.0% |
| Everton by 3+ | 10.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 West Ham | 18 | 1 | 0.84 | +0.16 |
 Everton | 15 | 1 | 1.66 | −0.66 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 29' | Manuel Lanzini scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 42' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shot | 0.84 |
When it happened
West Ham’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Victor Moses didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +3% EVE |
| 2 | 17' | Arouna Koné didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% WHU |
| 3 | 29' | Manuel Lanzini scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +24% WHU |
| 4 | 37' | José Ramiro Funes Mori didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% WHU |
| 5 | 42' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shotFinishing · 84% chance | +5% EVE |
| 6 | 72' | Winston Reid didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% EVE |
| 7 | 84' | Carl Jenkinson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% EVE |
| 8 | 85' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +12% WHU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Ham 15% · draw 25% · Everton 60%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for West Ham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Everton by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- West Ham 23% · draw 27% · Everton 50% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 12, 2015-16
- Stoke 1–0 Chelsea Nov 7, 2015 · replay 51% for Stoke
- Bournemouth 0–1 Newcastle Nov 7, 2015 · replay 30% for Newcastle
- Man United 2–0 West Brom Nov 7, 2015 · replay 81% for Man United
- Norwich 1–0 Swansea Nov 7, 2015 · replay 68% for Norwich
- Leicester 2–1 Watford Nov 7, 2015 · replay 77% for Leicester
- Sunderland 0–1 Southampton Nov 7, 2015 · replay 80% for Southampton
- Liverpool 1–2 Crystal Palace Nov 8, 2015 · replay 24% for Crystal Palace
- Arsenal 1–1 Tottenham Nov 8, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Aston Villa 0–0 Man City Nov 8, 2015 · drawn; replay 17% draws