Matchday 18 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 26, 2015
Southampton 4–0 Arsenal: who deserved to win?
Southampton beat Arsenal 4–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Southampton win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Southampton made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Southampton | 4 | 1.91 |
 Arsenal | 0 | 0.79 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +14 Southampton about even · −14 Arsenal
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Southampton win 8, 1 ends level, Arsenal win 1.
- 1 SOU 3 ARS 2
- 2 SOU 1 ARS 0
- 3 SOU 2 ARS 0
- 4 SOU 3 ARS 1
- 5 SOU 4 ARS 2
- 6 SOU 4 ARS 1
- 7 SOU 4 ARS 0
- 8 SOU 5 ARS 0
- 9 SOU 1 ARS 1
- 10 SOU 1 ARS 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Southampton win 79%, 14% end level, Arsenal win 7%. The line is what actually happened: Southampton by 4.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Southampton by 3+ | 35.2% |
| Southampton by 2 | 21.1% |
| Southampton by 1 | 22.3% |
| Draw | 14.4% |
| Arsenal by 1 | 5.1% |
| Arsenal by 2 | 1.6% |
| Arsenal by 3+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Southampton | 14 | 4 | 1.91 | +2.09 |
 Arsenal | 8 | 0 | 0.79 | −0.79 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 18' | Rhu-endly Martina scored from a shot | 0.01 |
| 54' | Shane Long scored from a shot | 0.58 |
| 68' | José Miguel da Rocha Fonte scored from a shot | 0.21 |
| 79' | Mesut Özil didn’t score from a shot | 0.39 |
| 91' | Shane Long scored from a shot | 0.20 |
When it happened
Southampton’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16' | Olivier Giroud didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% SOU |
| 2 | 16' | Ignacio Monreal Eraso didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% SOU |
| 3 | 18' | Rhu-endly Martina scored from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +23% SOU |
| 4 | 28' | Steven Davis didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +1% ARS |
| 5 | 36' | Theo Walcott didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% SOU |
| 6 | 38' | Theo Walcott didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% SOU |
| 7 | 42' | Shane Long didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +3% ARS |
| 8 | 54' | Shane Long scored from a shotFinishing · 58% chance | +5% SOU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Southampton 88% · draw 9% · Arsenal 3%
- Final margin
- Southampton by 4
- Luck in goals
- 2.2 for Southampton
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Southampton by 1.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Southampton 79% · draw 14% · Arsenal 7% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Southampton win 86% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 18 matches, 2015-16 · Southampton · Arsenal
More from matchday 18, 2015-16
- Stoke 2–0 Man United Dec 26, 2015 · replay 57% for Stoke
- Newcastle 0–1 Everton Dec 26, 2015 · replay 61% for Everton
- Tottenham 3–0 Norwich Dec 26, 2015 · replay 85% for Tottenham
- Man City 4–1 Sunderland Dec 26, 2015 · replay 93% for Man City
- Aston Villa 1–1 West Ham Dec 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Swansea 1–0 West Brom Dec 26, 2015 · replay 64% for Swansea
- Chelsea 2–2 Watford Dec 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Liverpool 1–0 Leicester Dec 26, 2015 · replay 76% for Liverpool
- Bournemouth 0–0 Crystal Palace Dec 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 35% draws