Matchday 18 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 26, 2015
Bournemouth 0–0 Crystal Palace: who deserved to win?
Bournemouth and Crystal Palace drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Bournemouth win 4 of 10, Crystal Palace 2, and 4 end level. Bournemouth made the better chances: 0.8 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 AFC Bournemouth | 0 | 0.83 |
 Crystal Palace | 0 | 0.56 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −9 Bournemouth about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bournemouth win 4, 4 end level, Crystal Palace win 2.
- 1 BOU 1 CRY 0
- 2 BOU 2 CRY 1
- 3 BOU 1 CRY 0
- 4 BOU 2 CRY 0
- 5 BOU 2 CRY 2
- 6 BOU 0 CRY 0
- 7 BOU 1 CRY 1
- 8 BOU 1 CRY 1
- 9 BOU 0 CRY 2
- 10 BOU 0 CRY 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Bournemouth win 41%, 35% end level, Crystal Palace win 24%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 3.9% |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 10.9% |
| Bournemouth by 1 | 26.2% |
| Draw | 35.2% |
| Crystal Palace by 1 | 17.2% |
| Crystal Palace by 2 | 5.3% |
| Crystal Palace by 3+ | 1.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bournemouth | 10 | 0 | 0.83 | −0.83 |
 Crystal Palace | 7 | 0 | 0.56 | −0.56 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
When it happened
Bournemouth’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Scott Dann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% BOU |
| 2 | 22' | Glenn Murray didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +3% CRY |
| 3 | 33' | Andrew Surman didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +5% CRY |
| 4 | 39' | Junior Stanislas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% CRY |
| 5 | 44' | Jordon Mutch didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% BOU |
| 6 | 54' | Glenn Murray didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% CRY |
| 7 | 64' | James McArthur didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% BOU |
| 8 | 78' | Tokelo Anthony Rantie didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +5% CRY |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bournemouth 39% · draw 37% · Crystal Palace 25%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Crystal Palace
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bournemouth by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Bournemouth 41% · draw 35% · Crystal Palace 24% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 18 matches, 2015-16 · Bournemouth · Crystal Palace
More from matchday 18, 2015-16
- Southampton 4–0 Arsenal Dec 26, 2015 · replay 86% for Southampton
- Stoke 2–0 Man United Dec 26, 2015 · replay 57% for Stoke
- Newcastle 0–1 Everton Dec 26, 2015 · replay 61% for Everton
- Tottenham 3–0 Norwich Dec 26, 2015 · replay 85% for Tottenham
- Man City 4–1 Sunderland Dec 26, 2015 · replay 93% for Man City
- Aston Villa 1–1 West Ham Dec 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Swansea 1–0 West Brom Dec 26, 2015 · replay 64% for Swansea
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