Matchday 18 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 26, 2015
Swansea 1–0 West Brom: who deserved to win?
Swansea beat West Brom 1–0, and the replays lean Swansea’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for West Brom, 3 end level. Swansea made the better chances: 1.0 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Swansea City | 1 | 0.98 |
 West Bromwich Albion | 0 | 0.62 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +36 Swansea lucky · −36 West Brom
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Swansea win 5, 3 end level, West Brom win 2.
- 1 SWA 1 WBA 0
- 2 SWA 1 WBA 0
- 3 SWA 2 WBA 1
- 4 SWA 3 WBA 1
- 5 SWA 3 WBA 0
- 6 SWA 0 WBA 0
- 7 SWA 1 WBA 1
- 8 SWA 1 WBA 1
- 9 SWA 0 WBA 1
- 10 SWA 0 WBA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Swansea win 48%, 32% end level, West Brom win 20%. The line is what actually happened: Swansea by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Swansea by 3+ | 5.6% |
| Swansea by 2 | 14.4% |
| Swansea by 1 | 27.8% |
| Draw | 32.0% |
| West Brom by 1 | 15.5% |
| West Brom by 2 | 4.1% |
| West Brom by 3+ | 0.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Swansea | 7 | 1 | 0.98 | +0.02 |
 West Brom | 9 | 0 | 0.62 | −0.62 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 8' | Sung-Yeung Ki scored from a shot | 0.73 |
When it happened
Swansea’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8' | Sung-Yeung Ki scored from a shotFinishing · 73% chance | +6% SWA |
| 2 | 17' | Chris Brunt didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 7% chance | +2% SWA |
| 3 | 47' | James Morrison didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% SWA |
| 4 | 51' | Rickie Lambert didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% SWA |
| 5 | 72' | Rickie Lambert didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +5% SWA |
| 6 | 78' | James Morrison didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% SWA |
| 7 | 78' | Saido Berahino didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% SWA |
| 8 | 79' | Craig Dawson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% SWA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Swansea 49% · draw 33% · West Brom 18%
- Final margin
- Swansea by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Swansea
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Swansea by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Swansea 48% · draw 32% · West Brom 20% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Swansea win 64% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 18 matches, 2015-16 · Swansea · West Brom
More from matchday 18, 2015-16
- Southampton 4–0 Arsenal Dec 26, 2015 · replay 86% for Southampton
- Stoke 2–0 Man United Dec 26, 2015 · replay 57% for Stoke
- Newcastle 0–1 Everton Dec 26, 2015 · replay 61% for Everton
- Tottenham 3–0 Norwich Dec 26, 2015 · replay 85% for Tottenham
- Man City 4–1 Sunderland Dec 26, 2015 · replay 93% for Man City
- Aston Villa 1–1 West Ham Dec 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Chelsea 2–2 Watford Dec 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Liverpool 1–0 Leicester Dec 26, 2015 · replay 76% for Liverpool
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