Matchday 18 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 26, 2015
Chelsea 2–2 Watford: who deserved to win?
Chelsea and Watford drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Chelsea win 5 of 10, Watford 3, and 2 end level. Chelsea made the better chances: 2.2 expected goals to 1.6. An own goal helped Watford.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Chelsea | 2 | 2.22 |
 Watford | 2 | 1.61 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −13 Chelsea about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Chelsea win 5, 2 end level, Watford win 3.
- 1 CHE 3 WAT 2
- 2 CHE 2 WAT 1
- 3 CHE 4 WAT 2
- 4 CHE 3 WAT 1
- 5 CHE 3 WAT 0
- 6 CHE 1 WAT 1
- 7 CHE 0 WAT 0
- 8 CHE 0 WAT 2
- 9 CHE 2 WAT 3
- 10 CHE 2 WAT 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Chelsea win 54%, 20% end level, Watford win 27%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Chelsea by 3+ | 16.4% |
| Chelsea by 2 | 16.4% |
| Chelsea by 1 | 20.9% |
| Draw | 19.7% |
| Watford by 1 | 14.1% |
| Watford by 2 | 8.3% |
| Watford by 3+ | 4.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chelsea | 17 (1 pen) | 2 | 2.22 | −0.22 |
 Watford | 13 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.61 | −0.61 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 31' | Diego da Silva Costa scored from a shot | 0.19 |
| 41' | Troy Deeney scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 64' | Diego da Silva Costa scored from a shot | 0.31 |
| 79' | Oscar dos Santos Emboaba Júnior didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Chelsea’s chance of winning
As low as 16% and as high as 84%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Diego da Silva Costa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +4% WAT |
| 2 | 17' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +7% CHE |
| 3 | 31' | John Terry didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chanceDiego da Silva Costa scored from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +19% CHE |
| 4 | 41' | Troy Deeney scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +6% WAT |
| 5 | 55' | Own goal by nan, for WatfordOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +33% WAT |
| 6 | 64' | Diego da Silva Costa scored from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +26% CHE |
| 7 | 67' | Diego da Silva Costa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +7% WAT |
| 8 | 79' | Oscar dos Santos Emboaba Júnior didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +33% WAT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Chelsea 52% · draw 25% · Watford 23%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Watford
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Chelsea by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Chelsea 54% · draw 20% · Watford 27% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 18 matches, 2015-16 · Chelsea · Watford
More from matchday 18, 2015-16
- Southampton 4–0 Arsenal Dec 26, 2015 · replay 86% for Southampton
- Stoke 2–0 Man United Dec 26, 2015 · replay 57% for Stoke
- Newcastle 0–1 Everton Dec 26, 2015 · replay 61% for Everton
- Tottenham 3–0 Norwich Dec 26, 2015 · replay 85% for Tottenham
- Man City 4–1 Sunderland Dec 26, 2015 · replay 93% for Man City
- Aston Villa 1–1 West Ham Dec 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Swansea 1–0 West Brom Dec 26, 2015 · replay 64% for Swansea
- Liverpool 1–0 Leicester Dec 26, 2015 · replay 76% for Liverpool
- Bournemouth 0–0 Crystal Palace Dec 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 35% draws