Matchday 18 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 26, 2015
Tottenham 3–0 Norwich: who deserved to win?
Tottenham beat Norwich 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Tottenham win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Tottenham made the better chances: 2.3 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Tottenham Hotspur | 3 | 2.30 |
 Norwich City | 0 | 0.87 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +15 Tottenham about even · −15 Norwich
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Tottenham win 8, 1 ends level, Norwich win 1.
- 1 TOT 1 NOR 0
- 2 TOT 2 NOR 1
- 3 TOT 2 NOR 0
- 4 TOT 4 NOR 2
- 5 TOT 3 NOR 0
- 6 TOT 4 NOR 1
- 7 TOT 4 NOR 0
- 8 TOT 6 NOR 1
- 9 TOT 1 NOR 1
- 10 TOT 0 NOR 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Tottenham win 79%, 13% end level, Norwich win 8%. The line is what actually happened: Tottenham by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Tottenham by 3+ | 36.5% |
| Tottenham by 2 | 22.4% |
| Tottenham by 1 | 19.7% |
| Draw | 13.3% |
| Norwich by 1 | 5.9% |
| Norwich by 2 | 1.8% |
| Norwich by 3+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tottenham | 14 (1 pen) | 3 | 2.30 | +0.70 |
 Norwich | 11 | 0 | 0.87 | −0.87 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 25' | Harry Kane scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 41' | Harry Kane scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 79' | Tom Carroll scored from a shot | 0.04 |
When it happened
Tottenham’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Sébastien Aymar Bassong Nguena didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% TOT |
| 2 | 16' | Cameron Jerome didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +6% TOT |
| 3 | 22' | Bamidele Alli didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% NOR |
| 4 | 22' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +6% NOR |
| 5 | 25' | Harry Kane scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +5% TOT |
| 6 | 34' | Toby Alderweireld didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +3% NOR |
| 7 | 34' | Bamidele Alli didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +3% NOR |
| 8 | 41' | Harry Kane scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +11% TOT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Tottenham 91% · draw 7% · Norwich 2%
- Final margin
- Tottenham by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for Tottenham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tottenham by 1.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Tottenham 79% · draw 13% · Norwich 8% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Tottenham win 85% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 18 matches, 2015-16 · Tottenham · Norwich
More from matchday 18, 2015-16
- Southampton 4–0 Arsenal Dec 26, 2015 · replay 86% for Southampton
- Stoke 2–0 Man United Dec 26, 2015 · replay 57% for Stoke
- Newcastle 0–1 Everton Dec 26, 2015 · replay 61% for Everton
- Man City 4–1 Sunderland Dec 26, 2015 · replay 93% for Man City
- Aston Villa 1–1 West Ham Dec 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Swansea 1–0 West Brom Dec 26, 2015 · replay 64% for Swansea
- Chelsea 2–2 Watford Dec 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Liverpool 1–0 Leicester Dec 26, 2015 · replay 76% for Liverpool
- Bournemouth 0–0 Crystal Palace Dec 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 35% draws