Matchday 18 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 26, 2015
Man City 4–1 Sunderland: who deserved to win?
Man City beat Sunderland 4–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Man City win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Man City made the better chances: 2.7 expected goals to 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Manchester City | 4 | 2.72 |
 Sunderland | 1 | 1.24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 Man City about even · −7 Sunderland
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Man City win 9, 1 ends level, Sunderland win 0.
- 1 MCI 1 SUN 0
- 2 MCI 3 SUN 1
- 3 MCI 3 SUN 1
- 4 MCI 4 SUN 1
- 5 MCI 4 SUN 0
- 6 MCI 4 SUN 0
- 7 MCI 6 SUN 1
- 8 MCI 5 SUN 0
- 9 MCI 8 SUN 1
- 10 MCI 2 SUN 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Man City win 89%, 7% end level, Sunderland win 4%. The line is what actually happened: Man City by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Man City by 3+ | 58.9% |
| Man City by 2 | 17.0% |
| Man City by 1 | 13.7% |
| Draw | 6.5% |
| Sunderland by 1 | 2.9% |
| Sunderland by 2 | 0.9% |
| Sunderland by 3+ | 0.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Man City | 19 (1 pen) | 4 | 2.72 | +1.28 |
 Sunderland | 11 | 1 | 1.24 | −0.24 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 11' | Raheem Sterling scored from a shot | 0.17 |
| 16' | Gnégnéri Yaya Touré scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 21' | Wilfried Guemiand Bony scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 53' | Kevin De Bruyne scored from a shot | 0.58 |
| 58' | Fabio Borini didn’t score from a shot | 0.44 |
| 58' | Fabio Borini scored from a shot | 0.14 |
| 68' | Wilfried Guemiand Bony didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 79' | Wilfried Guemiand Bony didn’t score from a shot | 0.32 |
When it happened
Man City’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Aleksandar Kolarov didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 1% chance | +0% SUN |
| 2 | 11' | Raheem Sterling scored from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +19% MCI |
| 3 | 16' | Gnégnéri Yaya Touré scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +12% MCI |
| 4 | 17' | Steven Fletcher didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% MCI |
| 5 | 19' | Danny Graham didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +1% MCI |
| 6 | 21' | Wilfried Guemiand Bony scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +4% MCI |
| 7 | 32' | Steven Fletcher didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +0% MCI |
| 8 | 34' | Fabio Borini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +0% MCI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Man City 89% · draw 8% · Sunderland 3%
- Final margin
- Man City by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for Man City
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man City by 1.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Man City 89% · draw 7% · Sunderland 4% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Man City win 93% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 18, 2015-16
- Southampton 4–0 Arsenal Dec 26, 2015 · replay 86% for Southampton
- Stoke 2–0 Man United Dec 26, 2015 · replay 57% for Stoke
- Newcastle 0–1 Everton Dec 26, 2015 · replay 61% for Everton
- Tottenham 3–0 Norwich Dec 26, 2015 · replay 85% for Tottenham
- Aston Villa 1–1 West Ham Dec 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Swansea 1–0 West Brom Dec 26, 2015 · replay 64% for Swansea
- Chelsea 2–2 Watford Dec 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Liverpool 1–0 Leicester Dec 26, 2015 · replay 76% for Liverpool
- Bournemouth 0–0 Crystal Palace Dec 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 35% draws