Matchday 18 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 26, 2015
Aston Villa 1–1 West Ham: who deserved to win?
Aston Villa and West Ham drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Aston Villa win 5 of 10, West Ham 2, and 3 end level. Aston Villa made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 1 | 1.56 |
 West Ham United | 1 | 0.69 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −16 Aston Villa about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Aston Villa win 5, 3 end level, West Ham win 2.
- 1 AVL 1 WHU 0
- 2 AVL 1 WHU 0
- 3 AVL 1 WHU 0
- 4 AVL 2 WHU 0
- 5 AVL 3 WHU 0
- 6 AVL 0 WHU 0
- 7 AVL 0 WHU 0
- 8 AVL 0 WHU 0
- 9 AVL 0 WHU 2
- 10 AVL 0 WHU 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Aston Villa win 53%, 26% end level, West Ham win 21%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa by 3+ | 10.0% |
| Aston Villa by 2 | 17.0% |
| Aston Villa by 1 | 25.9% |
| Draw | 26.5% |
| West Ham by 1 | 14.4% |
| West Ham by 2 | 4.8% |
| West Ham by 3+ | 1.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 15 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.56 | −0.56 |
 West Ham | 10 | 1 | 0.69 | +0.31 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 46' | Aaron Cresswell scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 61' | Jordan Ayew scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Aston Villa’s chance of winning
As low as 17% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27' | Rudy Gestede didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% WHU |
| 2 | 45' | Cheikhou Kouyaté didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +7% AVL |
| 3 | 46' | Aaron Cresswell scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +32% WHU |
| 4 | 49' | Rudy Gestede didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +5% WHU |
| 5 | 58' | Rudy Gestede didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% WHU |
| 6 | 61' | Jordan Ayew scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +8% AVL |
| 7 | 69' | Mark Noble didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% AVL |
| 8 | 73' | Alan Hutton didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% WHU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Aston Villa 63% · draw 24% · West Ham 13%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for West Ham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Aston Villa by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Aston Villa 53% · draw 26% · West Ham 21% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 18, 2015-16
- Southampton 4–0 Arsenal Dec 26, 2015 · replay 86% for Southampton
- Stoke 2–0 Man United Dec 26, 2015 · replay 57% for Stoke
- Newcastle 0–1 Everton Dec 26, 2015 · replay 61% for Everton
- Tottenham 3–0 Norwich Dec 26, 2015 · replay 85% for Tottenham
- Man City 4–1 Sunderland Dec 26, 2015 · replay 93% for Man City
- Swansea 1–0 West Brom Dec 26, 2015 · replay 64% for Swansea
- Chelsea 2–2 Watford Dec 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Liverpool 1–0 Leicester Dec 26, 2015 · replay 76% for Liverpool
- Bournemouth 0–0 Crystal Palace Dec 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 35% draws