Matchday 18 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 26, 2015
Liverpool 1–0 Leicester: who deserved to win?
Liverpool beat Leicester 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Liverpool win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Liverpool made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Liverpool | 1 | 1.78 |
 Leicester City | 0 | 0.80 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +24 Liverpool about even · −24 Leicester
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Liverpool win 7, 2 end level, Leicester win 1.
- 1 LIV 2 LEI 1
- 2 LIV 4 LEI 3
- 3 LIV 2 LEI 0
- 4 LIV 4 LEI 2
- 5 LIV 2 LEI 0
- 6 LIV 3 LEI 0
- 7 LIV 4 LEI 0
- 8 LIV 1 LEI 1
- 9 LIV 1 LEI 1
- 10 LIV 0 LEI 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Liverpool win 66%, 21% end level, Leicester win 14%. The line is what actually happened: Liverpool by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Liverpool by 3+ | 20.2% |
| Liverpool by 2 | 21.0% |
| Liverpool by 1 | 24.4% |
| Draw | 20.7% |
| Leicester by 1 | 9.8% |
| Leicester by 2 | 2.8% |
| Leicester by 3+ | 1.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Liverpool | 26 | 1 | 1.78 | −0.78 |
 Leicester | 7 | 0 | 0.80 | −0.80 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 62' | Christian Benteke Liolo scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 94' | Christian Benteke Liolo didn’t score from a shot | 0.51 |
When it happened
Liverpool’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14' | Shinji Okazaki didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% LIV |
| 2 | 23' | Philippe Coutinho Correia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chanceMamadou Sakho didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +5% LEI |
| 3 | 27' | Jamie Vardy didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% LIV |
| 4 | 59' | Christian Benteke Liolo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% LEI |
| 5 | 62' | Christian Benteke Liolo scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +30% LIV |
| 6 | 73' | Nathan Dyer didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +9% LIV |
| 7 | 88' | Andrew Philip King didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +6% LIV |
| 8 | 95' | Andrew Philip King didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% LIV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Liverpool 62% · draw 23% · Leicester 14%
- Final margin
- Liverpool by 1
- Luck in goals
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Liverpool by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Liverpool 66% · draw 21% · Leicester 14% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Liverpool win 76% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 18 matches, 2015-16 · Liverpool · Leicester
More from matchday 18, 2015-16
- Southampton 4–0 Arsenal Dec 26, 2015 · replay 86% for Southampton
- Stoke 2–0 Man United Dec 26, 2015 · replay 57% for Stoke
- Newcastle 0–1 Everton Dec 26, 2015 · replay 61% for Everton
- Tottenham 3–0 Norwich Dec 26, 2015 · replay 85% for Tottenham
- Man City 4–1 Sunderland Dec 26, 2015 · replay 93% for Man City
- Aston Villa 1–1 West Ham Dec 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Swansea 1–0 West Brom Dec 26, 2015 · replay 64% for Swansea
- Chelsea 2–2 Watford Dec 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Bournemouth 0–0 Crystal Palace Dec 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 35% draws