Matchday 18 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 26, 2015
Stoke 2–0 Man United: who deserved to win?
Stoke beat Man United 2–0, and the replays lean Stoke’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Man United, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.1 expected goals to 1.3).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Stoke City | 2 | 1.08 |
 Manchester United | 0 | 1.28 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +43 Stoke lucky · −43 Man United
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Stoke win 4, 3 end level, Man United win 3.
- 1 STK 1 MUN 0
- 2 STK 2 MUN 1
- 3 STK 2 MUN 0
- 4 STK 3 MUN 1
- 5 STK 1 MUN 1
- 6 STK 1 MUN 1
- 7 STK 0 MUN 0
- 8 STK 0 MUN 2
- 9 STK 1 MUN 2
- 10 STK 1 MUN 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Stoke win 43%, 29% end level, Man United win 28%. The line is what actually happened: Stoke by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Stoke by 3+ | 7.0% |
| Stoke by 2 | 12.3% |
| Stoke by 1 | 23.5% |
| Draw | 29.0% |
| Man United by 1 | 17.9% |
| Man United by 2 | 7.4% |
| Man United by 3+ | 2.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stoke | 13 | 2 | 1.08 | +0.92 |
 Man United | 10 | 0 | 1.28 | −1.28 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 7' | Memphis Depay didn’t score from a shot | 0.35 |
| 18' | Bojan Krkíc Pérez scored from a shot | 0.46 |
| 25' | Marko Arnautović scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 63' | Marouane Fellaini-Bakkioui didn’t score from a shot | 0.48 |
When it happened
Stoke’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Memphis Depay didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +9% STK |
| 2 | 9' | Marko Arnautović didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 4% chance | +1% MUN |
| 3 | 14' | Bojan Krkíc Pérez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% MUN |
| 4 | 18' | Bojan Krkíc Pérez scored from a shotFinishing · 46% chance | +13% STK |
| 5 | 25' | Bojan Krkíc Pérez didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 7% chance | +1% MUN |
| 6 | 25' | Marko Arnautović scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +12% STK |
| 7 | 35' | Marouane Fellaini-Bakkioui didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +1% STK |
| 8 | 63' | Marouane Fellaini-Bakkioui didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 48% chance | +5% STK |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Stoke 58% · draw 24% · Man United 18%
- Final margin
- Stoke by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.7 for Stoke
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Stoke by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Stoke 43% · draw 29% · Man United 28% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Stoke win 57% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 18 matches, 2015-16 · Stoke · Man United
More from matchday 18, 2015-16
- Southampton 4–0 Arsenal Dec 26, 2015 · replay 86% for Southampton
- Newcastle 0–1 Everton Dec 26, 2015 · replay 61% for Everton
- Tottenham 3–0 Norwich Dec 26, 2015 · replay 85% for Tottenham
- Man City 4–1 Sunderland Dec 26, 2015 · replay 93% for Man City
- Aston Villa 1–1 West Ham Dec 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Swansea 1–0 West Brom Dec 26, 2015 · replay 64% for Swansea
- Chelsea 2–2 Watford Dec 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Liverpool 1–0 Leicester Dec 26, 2015 · replay 76% for Liverpool
- Bournemouth 0–0 Crystal Palace Dec 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 35% draws