Matchday 25 · Premier League 2015-16 · February 6, 2016
Tottenham 1–0 Watford: who deserved to win?
Tottenham beat Watford 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Tottenham win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Tottenham made the better chances: 2.2 expected goals to 0.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 2.21 |
 Watford | 0 | 0.09 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 Tottenham about even · −7 Watford
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Tottenham win 9, 1 ends level, Watford win 0.
- 1 TOT 2 WAT 1
- 2 TOT 1 WAT 0
- 3 TOT 2 WAT 0
- 4 TOT 2 WAT 0
- 5 TOT 2 WAT 0
- 6 TOT 3 WAT 0
- 7 TOT 3 WAT 0
- 8 TOT 4 WAT 0
- 9 TOT 5 WAT 0
- 10 TOT 2 WAT 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Tottenham win 87%, 12% end level, Watford win 1%. The line is what actually happened: Tottenham by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Tottenham by 3+ | 39.1% |
| Tottenham by 2 | 25.7% |
| Tottenham by 1 | 22.2% |
| Draw | 11.9% |
| Watford by 1 | 1.1% |
| Watford by 2 | 0.0% |
| Watford by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tottenham | 26 | 1 | 2.21 | −1.21 |
 Watford | 3 | 0 | 0.09 | −0.09 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 63' | Kieran Trippier scored from a shot | 0.64 |
When it happened
Tottenham’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24' | Nacer Chadli didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% WAT |
| 2 | 25' | Mousa Sidi Yaya Dembélé didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% WAT |
| 3 | 29' | Ben Davies didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% WAT |
| 4 | 33' | Nacer Chadli didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% WAT |
| 5 | 39' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% WAT |
| 6 | 57' | Toby Alderweireld didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% WAT |
| 7 | 63' | Kieran Trippier scored from a shotFinishing · 64% chance | +13% TOT |
| 8 | 87' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +3% TOT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Tottenham 91% · draw 8% · Watford 1%
- Final margin
- Tottenham by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Watford
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tottenham by 1.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Tottenham 87% · draw 12% · Watford 1% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Tottenham win 93% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 25 matches, 2015-16 · Tottenham · Watford
More from matchday 25, 2015-16
- Southampton 1–0 West Ham Feb 6, 2016 · replay 56% for Southampton
- Stoke 0–3 Everton Feb 6, 2016 · replay 95% for Everton
- Man City 1–3 Leicester Feb 6, 2016 · replay 77% for Leicester
- Newcastle 1–0 West Brom Feb 6, 2016 · replay 81% for Newcastle
- Swansea 1–1 Crystal Palace Feb 6, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Aston Villa 2–0 Norwich Feb 6, 2016 · replay 52% for Aston Villa
- Liverpool 2–2 Sunderland Feb 6, 2016 · drawn; replay 18% draws
- Bournemouth 0–2 Arsenal Feb 7, 2016 · replay 65% for Arsenal
- Chelsea 1–1 Man United Feb 7, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws