Matchday 25 · Premier League 2015-16 · February 6, 2016
Swansea 1–1 Crystal Palace: who deserved to win?
Swansea and Crystal Palace drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Swansea win 6 of 10, Crystal Palace 2, and 2 end level. Swansea made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Swansea City | 1 | 1.83 |
 Crystal Palace | 1 | 0.89 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −24 Swansea about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Swansea win 6, 2 end level, Crystal Palace win 2.
- 1 SWA 2 CRY 1
- 2 SWA 1 CRY 0
- 3 SWA 2 CRY 0
- 4 SWA 3 CRY 1
- 5 SWA 3 CRY 0
- 6 SWA 4 CRY 0
- 7 SWA 1 CRY 1
- 8 SWA 2 CRY 2
- 9 SWA 0 CRY 1
- 10 SWA 0 CRY 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Swansea win 64%, 21% end level, Crystal Palace win 15%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Swansea by 3+ | 19.8% |
| Swansea by 2 | 19.8% |
| Swansea by 1 | 24.2% |
| Draw | 21.0% |
| Crystal Palace by 1 | 10.9% |
| Crystal Palace by 2 | 3.2% |
| Crystal Palace by 3+ | 1.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Swansea | 19 | 1 | 1.83 | −0.83 |
 Crystal Palace | 12 | 1 | 0.89 | +0.11 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 12' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson scored from a free kick | 0.07 |
| 46' | Scott Dann scored from a shot | 0.29 |
| 67' | Ashley Williams didn’t score from a shot | 0.47 |
When it happened
Swansea’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson scored from a free kickFinishing · 7% chance | +21% SWA |
| 2 | 46' | Scott Dann scored from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +21% CRY |
| 3 | 63' | Federico Fernández didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% CRY |
| 4 | 67' | Ashley Williams didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 47% chance | +17% CRY |
| 5 | 77' | Scott Dann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% SWA |
| 6 | 82' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 8% chance | +4% CRY |
| 7 | 83' | Federico Fernández didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% CRY |
| 8 | 87' | Ashley Williams didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% CRY |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Swansea 61% · draw 22% · Crystal Palace 16%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Crystal Palace
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Swansea by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Swansea 64% · draw 21% · Crystal Palace 15% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 25 matches, 2015-16 · Swansea · Crystal Palace
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