Matchday 25 · Premier League 2015-16 · February 6, 2016
Aston Villa 2–0 Norwich: who deserved to win?
Aston Villa beat Norwich 2–0, but the replays call it even: Aston Villa win 4 of 10, Norwich 3, 3 end level. Norwich made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 2 | 0.74 |
 Norwich City | 0 | 1.15 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +48 Aston Villa lucky · −48 Norwich
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Aston Villa win 4, 3 end level, Norwich win 3.
- 1 AVL 2 NOR 1
- 2 AVL 1 NOR 0
- 3 AVL 2 NOR 1
- 4 AVL 3 NOR 1
- 5 AVL 1 NOR 1
- 6 AVL 0 NOR 0
- 7 AVL 0 NOR 0
- 8 AVL 0 NOR 2
- 9 AVL 1 NOR 2
- 10 AVL 0 NOR 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Aston Villa win 35%, 33% end level, Norwich win 32%. The line is what actually happened: Aston Villa by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa by 3+ | 3.5% |
| Aston Villa by 2 | 9.8% |
| Aston Villa by 1 | 21.8% |
| Draw | 33.0% |
| Norwich by 1 | 20.5% |
| Norwich by 2 | 8.5% |
| Norwich by 3+ | 2.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 10 | 2 | 0.74 | +1.26 |
 Norwich | 13 | 0 | 1.15 | −1.15 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 44' | Joleon Lescott scored from a shot | 0.02 |
| 50' | Gabriel Imuetinyan Agbonlahor scored from a shot | 0.05 |
When it happened
Aston Villa’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Carles Gil de Pareja Vicent didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% NOR |
| 2 | 10' | Gabriel Imuetinyan Agbonlahor didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +5% NOR |
| 3 | 22' | Steven Naismith didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% AVL |
| 4 | 28' | Sébastien Aymar Bassong Nguena didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +4% AVL |
| 5 | 31' | Carles Gil de Pareja Vicent didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 4% chance | +1% NOR |
| 6 | 44' | Joleon Lescott scored from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +28% AVL |
| 7 | 50' | Gabriel Imuetinyan Agbonlahor scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +11% AVL |
| 8 | 62' | Gary O''Neil didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +2% AVL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Aston Villa 54% · draw 26% · Norwich 20%
- Final margin
- Aston Villa by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.8 for Aston Villa
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Aston Villa by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Aston Villa 35% · draw 33% · Norwich 32% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Aston Villa win 52% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 25 matches, 2015-16 · Aston Villa · Norwich
More from matchday 25, 2015-16
- Tottenham 1–0 Watford Feb 6, 2016 · replay 93% for Tottenham
- Southampton 1–0 West Ham Feb 6, 2016 · replay 56% for Southampton
- Stoke 0–3 Everton Feb 6, 2016 · replay 95% for Everton
- Man City 1–3 Leicester Feb 6, 2016 · replay 77% for Leicester
- Newcastle 1–0 West Brom Feb 6, 2016 · replay 81% for Newcastle
- Swansea 1–1 Crystal Palace Feb 6, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Liverpool 2–2 Sunderland Feb 6, 2016 · drawn; replay 18% draws
- Bournemouth 0–2 Arsenal Feb 7, 2016 · replay 65% for Arsenal
- Chelsea 1–1 Man United Feb 7, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws