Matchday 25 · Premier League 2015-16 · February 6, 2016
Man City 1–3 Leicester: who deserved to win?
Leicester beat Man City 3–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Leicester win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Leicester made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Manchester City | 1 | 1.09 |
 Leicester City | 3 | 1.64 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +23 Leicester about even · −23 Man City
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Man City win 1, 2 end level, Leicester win 7.
- 1 MCI 2 LEI 1
- 2 MCI 0 LEI 0
- 3 MCI 1 LEI 1
- 4 MCI 1 LEI 5
- 5 MCI 1 LEI 4
- 6 MCI 0 LEI 2
- 7 MCI 0 LEI 2
- 8 MCI 2 LEI 3
- 9 MCI 0 LEI 1
- 10 MCI 0 LEI 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Man City win 13%, 19% end level, Leicester win 68%. The line is what actually happened: Leicester by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Man City by 3+ | 0.9% |
| Man City by 2 | 3.5% |
| Man City by 1 | 8.8% |
| Draw | 18.7% |
| Leicester by 1 | 24.3% |
| Leicester by 2 | 21.0% |
| Leicester by 3+ | 22.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Man City | 20 | 1 | 1.09 | −0.09 |
 Leicester | 12 | 3 | 1.64 | +1.36 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 2' | Robert Huth scored from a shot | 0.14 |
| 47' | Riyad Mahrez scored from a shot | 0.32 |
| 59' | Robert Huth scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 86' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a shot | 0.08 |
When it happened
Man City’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | The game turned hereRobert Huth scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +21% LEI |
| 2 | 7' | Jamie Vardy didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +5% MCI |
| 3 | 14' | David Josué Jiménez Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% LEI |
| 4 | 21' | Shinji Okazaki didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +5% MCI |
| 5 | 28' | Gnégnéri Yaya Touré didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% LEI |
| 6 | 47' | Riyad Mahrez scored from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +11% LEI |
| 7 | 53' | Fernando Francisco Reges didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +4% LEI |
| 8 | 59' | Robert Huth scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +3% LEI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Man City 10% · draw 16% · Leicester 74%
- Final margin
- Leicester by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for Leicester
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Leicester by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Man City 13% · draw 19% · Leicester 68% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Leicester win 77% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 25 matches, 2015-16 · Man City · Leicester
More from matchday 25, 2015-16
- Tottenham 1–0 Watford Feb 6, 2016 · replay 93% for Tottenham
- Southampton 1–0 West Ham Feb 6, 2016 · replay 56% for Southampton
- Stoke 0–3 Everton Feb 6, 2016 · replay 95% for Everton
- Newcastle 1–0 West Brom Feb 6, 2016 · replay 81% for Newcastle
- Swansea 1–1 Crystal Palace Feb 6, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Aston Villa 2–0 Norwich Feb 6, 2016 · replay 52% for Aston Villa
- Liverpool 2–2 Sunderland Feb 6, 2016 · drawn; replay 18% draws
- Bournemouth 0–2 Arsenal Feb 7, 2016 · replay 65% for Arsenal
- Chelsea 1–1 Man United Feb 7, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws