Matchday 25 · Premier League 2015-16 · February 7, 2016
Bournemouth 0–2 Arsenal: who deserved to win?
Arsenal beat Bournemouth 2–0, and the replays lean Arsenal’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Bournemouth, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (0.7 expected goals to 0.8).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 AFC Bournemouth | 0 | 0.67 |
 Arsenal | 2 | 0.76 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +35 Arsenal lucky · −35 Bournemouth
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bournemouth win 2, 3 end level, Arsenal win 5.
- 1 BOU 2 ARS 1
- 2 BOU 1 ARS 0
- 3 BOU 2 ARS 2
- 4 BOU 0 ARS 0
- 5 BOU 0 ARS 0
- 6 BOU 0 ARS 3
- 7 BOU 0 ARS 2
- 8 BOU 0 ARS 1
- 9 BOU 1 ARS 2
- 10 BOU 0 ARS 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Bournemouth win 17%, 35% end level, Arsenal win 48%. The line is what actually happened: Arsenal by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 0.7% |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 3.1% |
| Bournemouth by 1 | 13.6% |
| Draw | 34.8% |
| Arsenal by 1 | 27.5% |
| Arsenal by 2 | 14.3% |
| Arsenal by 3+ | 5.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bournemouth | 18 | 0 | 0.67 | −0.67 |
 Arsenal | 10 | 2 | 0.76 | +1.24 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 22' | Mesut Özil scored from a shot | 0.11 |
| 23' | Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain scored from a shot | 0.21 |
When it happened
Bournemouth’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% BOU |
| 2 | 16' | Matt Ritchie didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% ARS |
| 3 | 19' | Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% BOU |
| 4 | 22' | The game turned hereMesut Özil scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +24% ARS |
| 5 | 23' | Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain scored from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +14% ARS |
| 6 | 38' | Matt Ritchie didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% ARS |
| 7 | 50' | Adam Smith didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% ARS |
| 8 | 53' | Marc Pugh didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% ARS |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bournemouth 9% · draw 20% · Arsenal 70%
- Final margin
- Arsenal by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.4 for Arsenal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arsenal by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Bournemouth 17% · draw 35% · Arsenal 48% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Arsenal win 65% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 25, 2015-16
- Tottenham 1–0 Watford Feb 6, 2016 · replay 93% for Tottenham
- Southampton 1–0 West Ham Feb 6, 2016 · replay 56% for Southampton
- Stoke 0–3 Everton Feb 6, 2016 · replay 95% for Everton
- Man City 1–3 Leicester Feb 6, 2016 · replay 77% for Leicester
- Newcastle 1–0 West Brom Feb 6, 2016 · replay 81% for Newcastle
- Swansea 1–1 Crystal Palace Feb 6, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Aston Villa 2–0 Norwich Feb 6, 2016 · replay 52% for Aston Villa
- Liverpool 2–2 Sunderland Feb 6, 2016 · drawn; replay 18% draws
- Chelsea 1–1 Man United Feb 7, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws