Matchday 25 · Premier League 2015-16 · February 6, 2016
Liverpool 2–2 Sunderland: who deserved to win?
Liverpool and Sunderland drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Liverpool win 7 of 10, Sunderland 1, and 2 end level. Liverpool made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Liverpool | 2 | 1.82 |
 Sunderland | 2 | 0.54 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −33 Liverpool unlucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Liverpool win 7, 2 end level, Sunderland win 1.
- 1 LIV 1 SUN 0
- 2 LIV 2 SUN 1
- 3 LIV 3 SUN 1
- 4 LIV 2 SUN 0
- 5 LIV 2 SUN 0
- 6 LIV 3 SUN 0
- 7 LIV 4 SUN 0
- 8 LIV 1 SUN 1
- 9 LIV 1 SUN 1
- 10 LIV 0 SUN 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Liverpool win 75%, 18% end level, Sunderland win 8%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Liverpool by 3+ | 27.2% |
| Liverpool by 2 | 22.5% |
| Liverpool by 1 | 24.9% |
| Draw | 17.6% |
| Sunderland by 1 | 6.1% |
| Sunderland by 2 | 1.3% |
| Sunderland by 3+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Liverpool | 18 | 2 | 1.82 | +0.18 |
 Sunderland | 7 | 2 | 0.54 | +1.46 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 58' | Roberto Firmino Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a shot | 0.14 |
| 69' | Adam David Lallana scored from a shot | 0.87 |
| 81' | Adam Johnson scored from a free kick | 0.03 |
| 88' | Jermain Defoe scored from a shot | 0.18 |
When it happened
Liverpool’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19' | Alberto Moreno Pérez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% SUN |
| 2 | 44' | Alberto Moreno Pérez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +7% SUN |
| 3 | 56' | Jermain Defoe didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% LIV |
| 4 | 58' | Roberto Firmino Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +29% LIV |
| 5 | 66' | Patrick van Aanholt didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +5% LIV |
| 6 | 81' | Adam Johnson scored from a free kickFinishing · 3% chance | +4% SUN |
| 7 | 88' | Jermain Defoe scored from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +40% SUN |
| 8 | 92' | Adam Johnson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +3% LIV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Liverpool 75% · draw 19% · Sunderland 6%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for Sunderland
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Liverpool by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Liverpool 75% · draw 18% · Sunderland 8% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 25, 2015-16
- Tottenham 1–0 Watford Feb 6, 2016 · replay 93% for Tottenham
- Southampton 1–0 West Ham Feb 6, 2016 · replay 56% for Southampton
- Stoke 0–3 Everton Feb 6, 2016 · replay 95% for Everton
- Man City 1–3 Leicester Feb 6, 2016 · replay 77% for Leicester
- Newcastle 1–0 West Brom Feb 6, 2016 · replay 81% for Newcastle
- Swansea 1–1 Crystal Palace Feb 6, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Aston Villa 2–0 Norwich Feb 6, 2016 · replay 52% for Aston Villa
- Bournemouth 0–2 Arsenal Feb 7, 2016 · replay 65% for Arsenal
- Chelsea 1–1 Man United Feb 7, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws