Matchday 25 · Premier League 2015-16 · February 6, 2016
Stoke 0–3 Everton: who deserved to win?
Everton beat Stoke 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Everton win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Everton made the better chances: 2.7 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Stoke City | 0 | 0.68 |
 Everton | 3 | 2.66 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 Everton about even · −5 Stoke
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Stoke win 0, 1 ends level, Everton win 9.
- 1 STK 0 EVE 0
- 2 STK 0 EVE 7
- 3 STK 0 EVE 5
- 4 STK 0 EVE 4
- 5 STK 0 EVE 3
- 6 STK 1 EVE 4
- 7 STK 1 EVE 3
- 8 STK 0 EVE 2
- 9 STK 0 EVE 1
- 10 STK 0 EVE 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Stoke win 3%, 6% end level, Everton win 92%. The line is what actually happened: Everton by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Stoke by 3+ | 0.1% |
| Stoke by 2 | 0.4% |
| Stoke by 1 | 2.0% |
| Draw | 5.7% |
| Everton by 1 | 13.8% |
| Everton by 2 | 19.3% |
| Everton by 3+ | 58.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stoke | 12 | 0 | 0.68 | −0.68 |
 Everton | 14 (1 pen) | 3 | 2.66 | +0.34 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 10' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 27' | Séamus Coleman scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 41' | Aaron Lennon scored from a shot | 0.37 |
| 76' | Arouna Koné didn’t score from a shot | 0.50 |
When it happened
Stoke’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5' | José Ramiro Funes Mori didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% STK |
| 2 | 10' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +6% EVE |
| 3 | 27' | Séamus Coleman scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +17% EVE |
| 4 | 30' | Mame Biram Diouf didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% EVE |
| 5 | 41' | Aaron Lennon scored from a shotFinishing · 37% chance | +4% EVE |
| 6 | 43' | Marko Arnautović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +1% EVE |
| 7 | 50' | Mame Biram Diouf didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +0% EVE |
| 8 | 70' | Gilbert Gianelli Imbula Wanga didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +0% EVE |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Stoke 1% · draw 4% · Everton 95%
- Final margin
- Everton by 3
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Everton
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Everton by 2.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Stoke 3% · draw 6% · Everton 92% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Everton win 95% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 25 matches, 2015-16 · Stoke · Everton
More from matchday 25, 2015-16
- Tottenham 1–0 Watford Feb 6, 2016 · replay 93% for Tottenham
- Southampton 1–0 West Ham Feb 6, 2016 · replay 56% for Southampton
- Man City 1–3 Leicester Feb 6, 2016 · replay 77% for Leicester
- Newcastle 1–0 West Brom Feb 6, 2016 · replay 81% for Newcastle
- Swansea 1–1 Crystal Palace Feb 6, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Aston Villa 2–0 Norwich Feb 6, 2016 · replay 52% for Aston Villa
- Liverpool 2–2 Sunderland Feb 6, 2016 · drawn; replay 18% draws
- Bournemouth 0–2 Arsenal Feb 7, 2016 · replay 65% for Arsenal
- Chelsea 1–1 Man United Feb 7, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws