Matchday 25 · Premier League 2015-16 · February 6, 2016
Southampton 1–0 West Ham: who deserved to win?
Southampton beat West Ham 1–0, and the replays lean Southampton’s way: 4 wins in 10, 2 for West Ham, 4 end level. The chances were close to even (0.8 expected goals to 0.9).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Southampton | 1 | 0.81 |
 West Ham United | 0 | 0.88 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +44 Southampton lucky · −44 West Ham
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Southampton win 4, 4 end level, West Ham win 2.
- 1 SOU 1 WHU 0
- 2 SOU 1 WHU 0
- 3 SOU 2 WHU 1
- 4 SOU 3 WHU 1
- 5 SOU 0 WHU 0
- 6 SOU 1 WHU 1
- 7 SOU 0 WHU 0
- 8 SOU 0 WHU 0
- 9 SOU 0 WHU 2
- 10 SOU 1 WHU 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Southampton win 38%, 36% end level, West Ham win 26%. The line is what actually happened: Southampton by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Southampton by 3+ | 3.6% |
| Southampton by 2 | 10.0% |
| Southampton by 1 | 24.3% |
| Draw | 35.6% |
| West Ham by 1 | 18.9% |
| West Ham by 2 | 5.8% |
| West Ham by 3+ | 1.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Southampton | 8 | 1 | 0.81 | +0.19 |
 West Ham | 19 | 0 | 0.88 | −0.88 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 8' | Maya Yoshida scored from a shot | 0.35 |
When it happened
Southampton’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8' | Maya Yoshida scored from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +15% SOU |
| 2 | 28' | Winston Reid didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% SOU |
| 3 | 35' | Winston Reid didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% SOU |
| 4 | 74' | Emmanuel Emenike didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% SOU |
| 5 | 75' | Enner Remberto Valencia Lastra didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% SOU |
| 6 | 81' | Andy Carroll didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% SOU |
| 7 | 94' | Emmanuel Emenike didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% SOU |
| 8 | 94' | James Collins didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% SOU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Southampton 32% · draw 34% · West Ham 34%
- Final margin
- Southampton by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Southampton
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Southampton by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Southampton 38% · draw 36% · West Ham 26% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Southampton win 56% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 25 matches, 2015-16 · Southampton · West Ham
More from matchday 25, 2015-16
- Tottenham 1–0 Watford Feb 6, 2016 · replay 93% for Tottenham
- Stoke 0–3 Everton Feb 6, 2016 · replay 95% for Everton
- Man City 1–3 Leicester Feb 6, 2016 · replay 77% for Leicester
- Newcastle 1–0 West Brom Feb 6, 2016 · replay 81% for Newcastle
- Swansea 1–1 Crystal Palace Feb 6, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Aston Villa 2–0 Norwich Feb 6, 2016 · replay 52% for Aston Villa
- Liverpool 2–2 Sunderland Feb 6, 2016 · drawn; replay 18% draws
- Bournemouth 0–2 Arsenal Feb 7, 2016 · replay 65% for Arsenal
- Chelsea 1–1 Man United Feb 7, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws